In the short term, US token sentiment is marginally recovering, with risk appetite in the market picking up, but the high cost of short positions persists and the risk of pullback remains. On the macro front, expectations for Fed easing are heating up and major central bank rate decisions are approaching; liquidity disruptions may lead to intensified volatility. Technically, the 0.00410–0.00420 zone serves as core support, with 0.00500 above acting as key resistance—a breakout with increased volume will confirm a new upward cycle. Trading advice: Monitor the effectiveness of support zone defense; if 0.00500 is breached with volume, consider moderate allocation; strictly stop-loss if falling below 0.00410 to control exposure.

On-chain data indicates that the 7-day moving average of the Short-term Holder's SOPR has returned above 1, suggesting significant reduction in short-term selling pressure. Meanwhile, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index has climbed from extreme fear to a neutral zone, reflecting an improvement in investors’ risk appetite. However, short financing costs remain high, so a downturn in market sentiment may trigger profit-taking and forced liquidations, increasing volatility. Overall, sentiment is slightly bullish in the short term, but caution is warranted for rapid pullbacks.

Japan’s March Corporate Services Price Index surpassed expectations YoY, heightening market concerns about tighter monetary policy and strengthening the yen, which pressured risk assets. At the same time, US one-year inflation expectations came in below estimates, temporarily easing pressure on the Fed to hike rates further. Additionally, US 2-year Treasury yields have recently fallen sharply, indicating rising expectations for more accommodative policy ahead. With several major central banks holding rate decisions this week, macro liquidity stance will be the dominant factor, and US tokens may see greater volatility with global shifts in risk appetite.

On the daily chart, US experienced a strong rally from 0.00418 to 0.00483 on April 28, accompanied by a surge in trading volume, indicating bulls quickly amassed capital through market sentiment. But a rapid pullback to 0.00456 the next day signaled insufficient follow-up buying at moderately high levels. Currently, price is holding steady in the 0.00410–0.00420 support range, with strong resistance near 0.00500 above. A solid breakout with increased trading volume will open up the next upward move; losing the support zone may lead to continued range-bound trading or further testing below 0.00400.

UltraSolid

The European Central Bank's inclination to raise interest rates has strengthened, with Lagarde emphasizing increased risks.

European Central Bank officials stated that if energy prices do not ease, interest rates will be raised in June.

Hassett: It's time for Powell to leave the Federal Reserve.

Here’s why the crypto market is falling today

Lagarde speech: Interest rates best tool we can use

The Fed’s PCE Data Used to Measure Inflation Has Been Released! Here’s Bitcoin’s (BTC) Initial Reaction!

Lagarde speech: Debated at length a hike

Lagarde discussed various options, including the possibility of an interest rate hike.

The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge rose to its highest level in nearly three years

The US GDP is expected to grow by 2% in early 2026, indicating economic resilience.

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