Although there are signs of a recovery in MPIX market sentiment, trading volume and liquidity remain persistently low, and short-term price fluctuations are constrained by limited order book depth, resulting in heightened volatility. Risks and costs for short-term participants have risen simultaneously. It is recommended to pay close attention to marginal improvements around the $45,000 transaction volume and the movements of principal funds. If a breakout occurs with significant volume through key resistance zones, this could drive a revaluation of medium- and long-term value and a trend reversal. Until there is a notable improvement in liquidity, maintain a cautious and defensive stance, and wait for clear market signals before increasing positions.

Since the beginning of January, market sentiment has begun to show slight signs of recovery, but overall trading volumes have not yet expanded, and the sustainability of this trend remains to be seen. Against this backdrop, MPIX's short-term trend has shown a choppy upward movement, but bulls and bears have not reached consensus on either harvesting at highs or bottom-fishing at lows. Confirmation of a short-term bottom exit or upward initiation requires more trading volume and subsequent price breakthroughs.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

Recent data indicates that the 24-hour trading volume in the crypto market is only about $44,000, reflecting weak liquidity. Under these conditions, MPIX’s limited order book depth magnifies the impact of single trades on prices. Short-term speculators face high slippage and spread risks, which increases the cost of rapid entries and exits and further suppresses short-term activity.

Despite weak short-term liquidity, if the current recovery in sentiment continues alongside a return of mainstream capital, and is driven by macro events or industry developments, MPIX could undergo a mid- to long-term value re-rating and repricing. Close attention needs to be paid to subsequent changes in large holder positions and the breaking of key market levels, as these will inform the timing for medium- to long-term strategic allocations.

Megapix

Market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts before 2027 have significantly cooled.

US Treasuries slumped, lifting yields to the highest levels this month, as mounting oil prices further eroded expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts.

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Trump plans to extend the Iran sanctions for several months, causing U.S. Treasury bonds to fall.

Analysis: Three major risks, such as oil prices lifting to $200, may trigger a global recession.

The focus of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting in April.

Bank of Canada holds rates, says changes will be small if forecasts hold true

Major investment banks predict the Federal Reserve's rate cut path, starting as early as September.

Global news you need to know before the US stock market opens on Wednesday.

Fed: Neutral stance into April FOMC – TD Securities

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