BTCMT market sentiment has warmed up, with Asian buying and expectations of macro easing driving prices back to the critical 92,000 channel, re-establishing a bullish pattern. In the short term, pay attention to the breakout of the 86,000 support and 94,000 resistance: breaking below 86,000 will trigger massive long liquidations, while breaking above 94,000–98,000 may bring short squeeze and accelerated price moves. Options positioning suggests rising volatility expectations, and institutions’ short-term bullish allocations are likely to support a steady upward move. It is recommended to focus on range breakouts and changes in sentiment, adjust positions flexibly, and be wary of the dual risks of retracement and accelerated price swings.

Recent data shows a significant improvement in crypto market sentiment, with active buying from Asian markets pushing BTCMT prices back into a key upward channel. Prices have rebounded to around 92,000, reflecting that bulls have regained footing after year-end tax-loss selling. Expectations of monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve this year, along with institutions stepping up compliance-driven allocation to crypto assets, are expected to continuously support the market and help prices maintain an upward trend in the medium and long term. However, volatility in sentiment still warrants caution, and further data is needed to confirm the trend’s continuation.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

QCP's market analysis on January 5 highlights a strengthening crypto market in Asia, with Bitcoin and Ethereum surpassing $92,000 and $3,100 respectively, driven by US actions in Venezuela, year-end tax-loss trading, and rising crypto legislation expectations. Speculation about Venezuela holding significant "shadow Bitcoin reserves" and using USDT in oil trades could make it a major sovereign BTC holder. Options data show a bullish shift, with increased call options and straddle strategies indicating short covering and bets on upward volatility.

QCP: Venezuela Situation and Options Funding Resonance Strengthen Bullish Expectations in the Crypto Market

Bybit's 2026 Crypto Outlook report suggests the traditional Bitcoin "four-year cycle" may no longer apply directly to the current market. Key points include potential support from expected Fed easing, a 10.3% implied chance of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by year-end, increased institutional participation, improved regulation, and macroeconomic support disrupting old cycles. Tokenization of real-world assets and expanding stablecoin use are highlighted as major 2026 themes.

"The Four-Year Cycle" Is No Longer a Universal Formula? Bybit Releases 2026 Cryptocurrency Outlook Report

Short-term holders are currently mostly in a mark-to-market loss, so as long as prices stay below their average cost, selling pressure will be subdued. However, once prices reach the psychological balance point near 100,000, profit-taking might erupt, possibly causing a temporary correction. Moreover, a price drop below around 86,000 will trigger over one billion dollars in long liquidations; conversely, a breakout through the 94,000–98,000 resistance range could result in over one billion dollars in short liquidations, further fueling one-sided volatility. Therefore, 86,000 and 94,000 can serve as important near-term support and resistance references.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel notes that Bitcoin's current rise benefits from reduced selling pressure by short-term holders, who are currently at a loss since BTC trades below their average acquisition cost. This limits their profit-taking potential and suppresses sell pressure, explaining price resilience despite pullbacks. However, if BTC reaches $100,000, short-term holders may break even and start selling, creating price pressure. A key bullish signal is BTC closing above the short-term holders' realized price.

Analyst: The current BTC rise benefits from reduced selling pressure; if it reaches $100K, it will face selling from short-term holders.

According to ChainCatcher and Coinglass data, if BTC falls below $89,266, the total long position liquidation on major centralized exchanges (CEX) will reach $2.396 billion. Conversely, if BTC breaks above $98,140, the total short position liquidation on major CEXs will reach $1.245 billion.

Data: If BTC falls below $89,266, the total long liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $2.396 billion.

According to ChainCatcher and Coinglass data, if BTC surpasses $94,311, the total short position liquidation on major centralized exchanges (CEX) will reach $2.798 billion. Conversely, if BTC falls below $86,127, the total long position liquidation on major CEX will amount to $1.834 billion.

Data: If BTC breaks $94,311, the total short liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $2.798 billion.

Large holders have positioned over $2.3 million in March-end expiry 80,000/120,000 straddle options, indicating a notable increase in market expectations for significant price swings over the next quarter. At the same time, rising demand for call options reflects institutions’ short-term bullish sentiment, potentially accelerating short covering if the market retraces. Overall, options market neutral-to-bullish positioning suggests that as prices maintain range-bound or slowly rise, volatility is expected to remain elevated, providing structural opportunities for derivatives traders.

A trader on Deribit has invested approximately $2.36 million in a "straddle" options strategy on Bitcoin, purchasing 660 call options at a $120,000 strike price for about $860,000 and 660 put options at an $80,000 strike price for about $1.5 million. Both sets expire on March 27, 2026, indicating the trader expects significant BTC price volatility by the end of March, with potential upward movement of $28,000 or downward movement of $12,000.

Data: A trader invested $2.36M to buy 660 BTC, 120K call options, and 80K put options.

Minto

The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in April is 100%, while the probability of a rate cut in June is only 4.7%.

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The US Treasury market is focusing on the Federal Reserve meeting, with the probability of a rate cut by the end of the year rising to 40%.

One Week Preview | The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision; MegaETH token TGE will take place on April 30.

Netanyahu orders IDF to intensify attacks on Hezbollah, ceasefire in doubt

Trump halts US-Iran peace talks, April 30 deal market plummets

Trump evacuated from White House dinner amid US-Iran tensions

Biden highlights US blockade success against Iran, Strait of Hormuz traffic impacted

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