The current easing of geopolitical tensions combined with continued institutional allocations has formed structural support for SPX in the 0.3150 region, significantly enhancing short-term rebound momentum. Spot trading volume and mid-term allocation demand jointly drive price stabilization. If the price effectively breaks above 0.3646 with increased trading volume, further upward potential will be opened. It is recommended to monitor the validity of the 0.3150-0.33 support range. After breaking the resistance level, consider moderately increasing positions in line with the trend, and set strict stop-losses to strengthen risk management and cope with volatility and structural divergences in capital flow.

Recently, the United States and Iran announced a short-term ceasefire, leading to a rapid stabilization of market risk sentiment, and major US stock indices rebounded sharply as a group. Against the backdrop of a strong correlation between digital assets and traditional risk assets, SPX launched a strong rebound from a low of 0.3152 on April 14 to reach 0.3571 by April 16, with a cumulative gain of over 13%. On the daily chart, a series of bullish candles accompanied by rising volume indicate active short-term buying and a clear shift in market sentiment towards the positive.

Following the announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, market risk sentiment quickly improved, leading to a significant rebound in US stock indices, with the Dow rising over 1300 points. Fundstrat's Tom Lee stated the market has confirmed a phase bottom and is moving toward historical highs, expecting the S&P 500 to reach 7300 points this year. Investors see this as a buying opportunity amid easing geopolitical risks and falling oil prices.

US-Iran ceasefire boosts market sentiment, Tom Lee says the US stock market's interim bottom may have been confirmed.

Deutsche Bank analysts note that the S&P 500 has rebounded above its pre-strike level, rising over 8% since late March, driven by optimism over potential US-Iran talks and a temporary conflict outlook. Cyclical sectors like information technology and financials led gains, while falling oil prices eased stagflation fears. The index's recent performance marks its second-best 9-session run in four years.

S&P 500: Optimism returns with deal hopes – Deutsche Bank

The S&P 500 index reached a historic intraday high on Wednesday, marking its first peak since the outbreak of the Iran war. Investor optimism about easing conflict tensions and strong earnings forecasts has driven a return to risk assets. Despite ongoing geopolitical crises, market risk pricing has shifted, with traders factoring in lower short-term escalation risks. Since the conflict began on February 28, the index fell up to 9% but did not meet criteria for a technical correction.

The S&P 500 index hit a record high, signaling a shift in market risk pricing.

With Bitcoin and Ethereum being approved as commodities, international institutions are continuously making large-scale purchases and spot ETF fund inflows are climbing steadily, driving overall structural optimization of the crypto market. Although SPX is a small- and mid-cap token, it is expected to benefit from the spillover effect in institutional allocation strategies. Coupled with steadily increasing spot trading volume and signs of bottoming in price structure, mid-term allocation demand may continue to support SPX.

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP prices surged sharply due to a short squeeze triggered by reports of potential progress toward a US-Iran deal, causing $425 million in short liquidations and adding buying pressure. This spike was supported by strong institutional demand, including Michael Saylor’s $1.15 billion Bitcoin purchase and regulatory clarity from the SEC and CFTC classifying Bitcoin and Ethereum as commodities. The crypto market's move aligns with broader macro trends, correlated 93% with the S&P 500.

Why Are Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP Prices Surging Today?

Bitcoin price nears $75,000, driven by improved risk sentiment and easing geopolitical tensions, rising about 13% since the Iran conflict began on February 28, outperforming the S&P 500 and gold. Options market data shows reduced bearish pressure, while CoinShares reports a $1.1 billion net inflow into crypto investment products last week, with $786 million into US spot Bitcoin ETFs. ETF inflows and institutional demand are key drivers, though inflation, Fed policy, and geopolitical changes may impact future trends.

Analysis: Bitcoin Approaches $75,000, ETF Inflows Reach New Yearly High

From a daily technical perspective, the main resistance for SPX is around the 0.3646 level. If it can break above this level with significant volume, a new round of upward momentum will be confirmed. Key support below is concentrated in the 0.3149-0.33 range; if this area fails to hold, be alert to a short-term pullback. Although there is a willingness for long positions to increase in the derivatives market, the perpetual contract funding rate remains negative and open interest has slightly decreased, indicating an overall cautious tone. It is recommended to pay close attention to trading volume around key resistance levels and to set strict take-profit and stop-loss orders to guard against unexpected volatility.

Bitcoin rose to around $74,935 during the Asian session, up 0.7% in 24 hours and 5.4% weekly, driven mainly by spot buying rather than broad risk appetite. Derivatives markets show caution: perpetual contract funding rates remain negative, open interest declines, and options indicate higher demand for downside protection. This suggests a rebound, not a trend reversal, amid ongoing risk aversion and cautious sentiment despite gains.

Analysis: Bitcoin strengthens along with US stocks, but the options market still bets on downside risk.

SPX6900

It’s not a given that the European Central Bank’s next move on interest rates will be a hike, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks.

Kazaks: Will not oppose bets on two interest rate hikes this year

Waller: Rapid resolution of the Middle East situation may allow for interest rate cuts later this year.

Waller: Overall PCE inflation year-over-year in March may reach 3.5%

Waller: Increasing pressure from rising inflation is harder to ignore

Waller: Prolonged Middle East war will increase inflation and employment risks.

Waller: High inflation and a weak labor market will challenge the Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve's Waller expressed caution regarding interest rates, warning of the risks of prolonged warfare.

Fed's Daly: Rates May Remain Unchanged

Daly: The federal funds rate is slightly above the neutral level of 3%.

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