Although the current market shows signs of improved sentiment, the core trend has not been established. Technically, the market exhibits consolidation with oscillation, and key support and resistance zones (current range: mid-to-high level oscillation band) have not been effectively breached. Both volume and momentum indicators fail to provide directional signals. Investors are advised to remain patient and focus on subsequent changes in capital flows and trading volume, and only consider increasing their positions after a clear breakout (recommended to monitor breakouts of the upper/lower boundary of the range or indicator confirmation). If the adjustment continues, partial position building at lower levels may be considered, but strict stop-losses must be set to guard against retracement risk.

Recently, the overall market atmosphere has exhibited subtle changes, with bullish sentiment slightly on the rise. Volatility has narrowed and then shown a mild upward trend, with short-term risk appetite significantly improving. However, a definitive upward trend has yet to form, and further data are needed to confirm whether market sentiment can be sustained.

From the observable candlestick structure, prices have repeatedly tested the mid-to-high range without any effective breakout of key support or resistance levels. Trading volume remains subdued, and momentum indicators have not shown clear divergences or bullish cross signals. The technical pattern thus remains one of oscillation, with brief deadlock between bulls and bears.

With sentiment starting to recover, investors can focus on the coordination between capital flows and trading volume. Entry is suggested only once technical indicators present clear directional signals or after confirmation of a key breakout level. If the uptrend fails to continue, consider phased position building at lower levels with strict stop-loss settings to control short-term risks.

LEGIT

JPY: Neutral rate debate supports gradual gains – Commerzbank

Analysis: Bitcoin surged to $73K after the CPI release, with the market focusing on whether it can retest the high range.

US: Energy shock complicates Fed path – Commerzbank

The initial expected one-year inflation rate in the US for April is 4.8%, with an expectation of 4.3%.

U.S. April one-year inflation expectation preliminary reading at 4.8%, expected 4.3%

Hassett: The Federal Reserve still has room to cut interest rates, outlook remains stable.

The market expects only about a one-third probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points this year.

Hassett: The Federal Reserve still has room to cut interest rates, and this outlook will be very solid.

Hassett: The Strait of Hormuz can be reopened within two months, and the Federal Reserve still has room to cut interest rates.

Economist: Core inflation is weak but pressure is lagging, inflation remains sticky.

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