PLENTY is currently experiencing range-bound fluctuations, with no significant bias between bullish and bearish forces. In the short term, the key range lies between 1.12 and 1.24. Trading volume has yet to expand effectively, and any trend breakout requires secondary confirmation. From a structural strategy perspective, it is recommended to introduce perpetual contracts to optimize liquidity and capital efficiency, thereby enhancing market depth and user retention. Historical data indicate that short-term liquidity is weak, while medium- and long-term contracts (e.g., macroeconomic or major policy event predictions) exhibit stable growth potential. Priority should be given to these to avoid high-frequency volatility and capture opportunities for long-term platform value expansion.

Recent candlestick charts show PLENTY's price oscillating narrowly between paralleling support and resistance levels, with trading volume remaining unimproved—illustrating a classic state of tug-of-war between bulls and bears. According to CryptoQuant analysts, overall market sentiment is at the budding stage of an inflection point, with short-term risks of an aborted reversal. Meanwhile, trend-following investors stress that the larger bull market narrative remains intact, suggesting that short-term bears may be facing a final squeeze. Overall, although sentiment has begun to show signs of improvement, the lack of volume confirmation means bulls and bears are likely to continue their battle near the range boundaries. Traders are advised to focus on range trading strategies and wait for secondary confirmation of any trend breakout.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua emphasized the importance of trend investing, stating that one should buy in a bull market and sell in a bear market. He noted that it's impossible to buy at the lowest or sell at the highest points. Yi highlighted that their approach is simply to share their understanding and operations without competing with others, and that profits or losses are determined by the market, alongside personal growth and connections made during the process.

Yi Lihua: Stick to trend investing, winning or losing is determined by the market.

Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua stated that respected investors like Buffett profit from value and trends, not speculation. He affirmed that 2024 is set to be a bull market due to macro and industry factors beyond individual control. Short sellers are making a final effort but face losses—exiting early means small losses, exiting late means large losses. After a month of market volatility, optimism will prevail while pessimists lag behind.

Yi Lihua: Trend is better than speculation, the bull market is set, bears face "small losses early, big losses late."

To address the liquidity constraints and low capital efficiency of current binary options-style prediction markets, industry participants advocate a transition toward perpetual contract models to build a truly high-frequency, sustainable liquidity system. If the PLENTY ecosystem adopts this concept—introducing perpetual contract designs and optimizing automated market-making mechanisms—it can improve trading depth, reduce slippage, and boost capital utilization. In the long run, this structural upgrade will not only enhance user trading experience but also expand market participation, providing endogenous momentum for PLENTY's price discovery and market capitalization breakthrough.

The article critically examines the current state of prediction markets, arguing they have fallen into a "local optimum" trap similar to past tech failures like BlackBerry and Yahoo. While binary options models have gained short-term traction, they suffer from liquidity shortages and low capital efficiency. The author advocates evolving prediction markets toward a perpetual contract model to achieve a truly universal, liquid market, emphasizing the need for radical redesign and humility to overcome structural limitations and realize their full potential.

Falling into a local optimum, market predictions should not stop here.

Historical data show that short-term trading markets suffer from severe liquidity shortages, with billion-level contracts often seeing zero trades within 24 hours, while trading volume on longer-term contracts is several times higher. Should PLENTY focus only on short-term events or hot topics, it will be difficult to maintain sustained marketplace activity. By contrast, positioning itself on medium- and long-term predictions, macro-political events, or major economic developments enables more stable capital inflow and user engagement, collectively creating a 'pond effect' that enhances overall platform liquidity. It is recommended that the ecosystem prioritize supporting medium- and long-term contracts in both product design and incentive policies, thus mitigating volatility risks caused by inadequate short-term liquidity.

Plenty DeFi

The Reserve Bank of India is likely to hold rates in its first policy decision since the Iran war, as it grapples with a sharply weaker rupee while trying to support economic growth.

Former Bank of Japan board member: The central bank may raise interest rates before July due to increased price pressure.

The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in April reaches 98.4%.

Federal Reserve officials warn of severe inflation situation, support tightening monetary policy.

Donald Trump Has Made More Statements Escalating Tensions Against Iran – “One Night Is Enough for the Whole Country”

Georgieva: Middle East war will exacerbate inflation and slow global economic growth.

Wells Fargo No Longer Expects the Fed to Cut Rates This Year

Wall Street giant Citi has revised its forecast for when the Fed will cut interest rates! JPMorgan CEO reveals his expectations!

Iran regime collapse odds rise to 13.5% as geopolitical tensions escalate: FT

US official views Iran’s hardline stance as negotiating tactic amid ceasefire doubts: FT

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