BONK's short-term price action was constrained by easing geopolitical tensions and improved macro liquidity. In mid-April, it successfully broke through the 0.000006171 critical resistance, with volume surging simultaneously and long momentum significantly strengthened. The current market has completed deleveraging, resulting in heightened sensitivity to capital flows, which increases the likelihood of rapid rallies and pullbacks in the short term. Key levels to watch are the 0.0000065 support and the 0.000006708 upside potential. In the medium to long term, caution is still needed regarding Fed policy and recurring external risks. Flexible position management and a two-way strategy are recommended.

Recently, a brief ceasefire window in the Middle East and the Fed’s hawkish stance have combined to clearly alleviate market risk aversion. The short-term relief in energy supply risks has led to a fall in oil prices, sparking a phase of reversal in risk assets. The rebound in Bitcoin and major equity indices has injected both capital and confidence into the broader crypto market, improving investor risk appetite and providing an external sentiment foundation for BONK’s rebound before the deadline.

The market experienced a rapid shift from "full escalation risk" to a "two-week ceasefire window" as Iran accepted a ceasefire, easing extreme energy supply shocks marginally. However, this shift is a temporary political concession rather than an end to conflict, delaying but not resolving supply risks. Structural policy divergences are widening, with the Fed maintaining high rates amid inflation concerns and Japan's wage growth prompting tightening, leading to a "non-coordinated tightening" and heightened market uncertainty dominated by geopolitical risks and fragile energy supply chains.

Bitunix Analyst: Ceasefire alleviates supply shock but does not change structural pressure, policy divergence widens, market enters a "uncertainty premium-dominated" phase.

Open interest in Bitcoin futures has halved from last year’s peak, indicating the overall market is deleveraging and position structures are healthier. However, lower leverage also means that small-scale capital inflows can now move prices up or down more easily. With the market becoming more sensitive to liquidity and sentiment fluctuations, short-term capital competition will intensify, and BONK is expected to see more rapid surges or pullbacks during periods of rising trading volume.

Bitcoin futures open interest has halved from $42 billion in October 2025 to $21 billion, indicating a deep market deleveraging. Current low leverage means even small capital inflows can significantly impact prices. Funding rates have fluctuated sharply between -12% and +7%, showing rapid shifts in market sentiment. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, no major liquidations have occurred since early February, reflecting a healthier position structure. Bitcoin awaits a clear directional trend amid heightened market sensitivity.

Analysis: The market has undergone a round of deep deleveraging, and Bitcoin is waiting to choose a direction.

Since mid-March, BONK’s daily price has mostly traded sideways within the 0.0000056–0.0000062 range, with trading volume staying at medium levels. Recently, as macro sentiment has improved, volume has notably expanded. On April 16, the closing price climbed above 0.0000065, reaching as high as 0.000006708, successfully breaking through the previous high at 0.000006171, indicating strengthened short-term bullish momentum. Technical indicators show rising volume coinciding with price gains, the MACD fast line is likely to form a bullish crossover again, and the probability of a continued uptrend has increased.

Bitcoin surged past $72,000, rising about 3% to approximately $72,300, driven by easing tensions in the Middle East. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu reportedly initiated talks with Lebanon, supported by Trump's call for reduced Israeli military actions to maintain a ceasefire. Bitcoin's 24-hour gain of around 2% outpaced other major cryptocurrencies and coincided with a rebound in U.S. stocks and a drop in oil prices. Bitcoin is increasingly decoupling from tech stocks, influenced more by geopolitical and risk-averse factors.

Analysis: Bitcoin breaks through $72,000, Middle East ceasefire expectations boost market sentiment.

Bitcoin has surpassed a four-week high, rising above $74,000. Analysts identify $75,000 as a critical "volatility release point," where derivative market negative gamma effects may amplify price fluctuations. This level coincides with Bitcoin's 100-day moving average, a key resistance in January. Breaking $75,000 could accelerate an uptrend, while a pullback may increase downward pressure. The $80,000–$80,600 range is a positive gamma zone with lower volatility, and the 200-day moving average at $87,519 serves as a long-term reference.

Analysis: Bitcoin breaks four-week high, key price range may intensify market volatility

Although short-term sentiment has improved, global monetary policy divergence remains, the Federal Reserve is still in a high interest rate environment, and the underlying risks of inflation and energy supply have not been fully resolved. If geopolitical tensions escalate again or liquidity tightens, market risk aversion may resurface, causing an overall pullback in crypto assets. Investors are advised to monitor macro policy trends and liquidity conditions, manage positions flexibly, and prepare for both long and short opportunities.

Bonk

It’s not a given that the European Central Bank’s next move on interest rates will be a hike, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks.

Kazaks: Will not oppose bets on two interest rate hikes this year

Waller: Rapid resolution of the Middle East situation may allow for interest rate cuts later this year.

Waller: Overall PCE inflation year-over-year in March may reach 3.5%

The Federal Reserve's Waller expressed caution regarding interest rates, warning of the risks of prolonged warfare.

Fed's Daly: Rates May Remain Unchanged

Daly: The federal funds rate is slightly above the neutral level of 3%.

UBS Expects 50 bps Fed Rate Cuts as Gov Miran Downplays Inflation Risks

Federal Reserve's Daly: On hold regarding interest rates.

Easing tensions in the Middle East combined with rising expectations of interest rate cuts have pushed gold close to $4,900.

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