PUSD is currently facing pressure from short-term liquidity stagnation. Due to limited intraday trading activity in the Polymarket market, short-term capital turnover is constrained and short-term trading demand is expected to remain low (with activity decreasing by 2-4%, and daily trading volume accounting for less than 10%). However, in the medium and long term, the ongoing release of macro political and economic hedging demand is driving significant growth in sectors with holding periods over 30 days. Leveraging its USD-pegged nature and high liquidity, PUSD is expected to maintain allocations and steady net capital inflows on the long-term demand side. It is recommended to focus on risk control and liquidity assurance in the short term, while strategically tilting toward medium- and long-term hedging scenarios to ensure asset pool safety and steady growth.

Recent data indicate that Polymarket’s short-term (within one day) market trading volume is relatively scarce, accounting for only a small fraction of the total. This low-frequency trading environment decreases participants’ demand for short-term stablecoin swaps. As a USD-pegged asset, PUSD primarily serves as a store of value and medium for quick exchanges in short-term fluctuations, but when trading frequency is insufficient, its capital turnover rate declines, possibly resulting in short-term pressure on PUSD’s usage activity and trading volume.

Compared to the short-term market, the long-term (over 30 days) sector’s trading volume is significantly higher, mainly focusing on macro political and geopolitical economic hedging themes. Against this backdrop, PUSD serves as a low-volatility, high-liquidity hedging tool, and its passive dollar-pegged attribute meets investors’ demand for long-term wealth preservation. This is expected to bring stable capital inflows and support PUSD’s long-term value in this sector.

Pleasing USD

It’s not a given that the European Central Bank’s next move on interest rates will be a hike, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks.

Kazaks: Will not oppose bets on two interest rate hikes this year

Waller: Rapid resolution of the Middle East situation may allow for interest rate cuts later this year.

Waller: Overall PCE inflation year-over-year in March may reach 3.5%

The Federal Reserve's Waller expressed caution regarding interest rates, warning of the risks of prolonged warfare.

Fed's Daly: Rates May Remain Unchanged

Daly: The federal funds rate is slightly above the neutral level of 3%.

UBS Expects 50 bps Fed Rate Cuts as Gov Miran Downplays Inflation Risks

Federal Reserve's Daly: On hold regarding interest rates.

Easing tensions in the Middle East combined with rising expectations of interest rate cuts have pushed gold close to $4,900.

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