COIN is currently dominated by a technical bear market, with the daily chart showing a death cross and the key support at $250 under pressure. If this level breaks, be alert for a potential deep correction, with the next support area around $220. On the fundamentals, the structural business transformation (such as subscriptions, custody, and brokerage services) has been recognized by institutions, raising the target price range and providing a buffer for medium to long-term valuation. The return of off-market ETF funds and sector rotation into DeFi and AI may boost short-term trading volumes, but risk appetite has not yet fully recovered. Insider selling and user asset security incidents continue to cause sentiment volatility. Suggestions: Stick to technical support for participation; decisively reduce positions if $250 fails to hold. Focus on the medium- to long-term valuation recovery opportunity brought by business upgrades, and beware of renewed market fluctuations under increased external risks.

Recently, COIN has edged up slightly in pre-market trading, briefly reaching the vicinity of a key psychological support level, but trading volume has not shown a significant increase. Notably, a death cross has appeared on the daily chart, with the stock price falling precipitously from $444 to $250, which is a clear technical bear market signal. If $250 is breached further, the downside space will widen, so investors should be alert to the risk of a continued downtrend and watch for potential support areas.

In pre-market trading on January 6, U.S. cryptocurrency concept stocks showed mixed performance. MSTR increased by 0.39%, COIN by 0.31%, HOOD by 0.34%, SBET by 0.58%, and CRCL by 0.96%, while BMNR declined by 0.30%, according to Bitget TradFi market data.

In pre-market trading, U.S. crypto concept stocks are mixed, with MSTR up 0.39%.

Coinbase's stock price has entered a technical bear market, dropping from $444 in July to $250, breaking key support levels and forming a death cross pattern. The stock faces risks from overvaluation, increased competition, and expected revenue declines. However, analysts predict a rebound with targets up to $440, supported by new ventures like a predictions market partnership, stock market expansion via tokenization, and growth in subscription and services revenue.

Coinbase stock price forms risky patterns as headwinds rise

Recently, two top investment banks have raised both the rating and the price target of COIN successively, mainly due to expectations of growth in the company's subscription and services business. Analysts note that as the proportion of revenue from custody, stablecoins, staking, brokerage, and other structural sources increases, the platform's profit model will transform from transaction fees towards a diversified subscription-based model, which will help smooth out performance volatility and enhance medium- to long-term valuation support.

Goldman Sachs upgraded Coinbase to buy, highlighting potential revenue and market share growth, while downgrading eToro due to expected higher customer acquisition costs and pricing challenges. Analysts are optimistic about Coinbase's subscription business and recent product launches.

Goldman Sachs upgrades Coinbase rating, downgrades eToro rating: report

Goldman Sachs upgraded Coinbase's stock rating from "Neutral" to "Buy" and raised its 12-month target price from $294 to $303. Analyst James Yaro highlighted Coinbase's shift from cyclical to structural growth, with subscription and service revenue expected to rise from 5% in 2020 to 40% in 2025, maintaining 13% annual growth through 2027. Expansion in custody, stablecoins, staking, and prime brokerage is expected to reduce earnings volatility.

Goldman Sachs upgrades Coinbase stock rating to buy after 12 months of consecutive declines in Coinbase's share price

Bank of America upgraded Coinbase to a 'buy' rating, highlighting the exchange's expansion beyond cryptocurrency into new products such as weekday equities trading and prediction markets.

Bank of America upgrades Coinbase to 'buy' as exchange moves beyond crypto

With expectations of loose macro liquidity, Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have recently seen net inflows of around $460 million and $160 million, respectively, driving a slight rebound in the overall crypto market capitalization. However, although the Fear & Greed Index has warmed from extreme fear to neutral-to-fear levels, investor caution remains. Meanwhile, funds have shifted from meme coins and surface-level hype assets to AI and DeFi sectors with actual use cases, which may boost trading volumes for COIN's centralized exchange business, though sector rotation could temporarily divert market attention.

Gate Ventures reports a rebound in the cryptocurrency market with BTC and ETH rising 4.13% and 6.61%, respectively, boosting total crypto market cap by 4.82%. ETF inflows improved, reversing two weeks of outflows, with BTC and ETH ETFs gaining approximately $459 million and $161 million. Despite price gains, market sentiment remains in "extreme fear." Mid- and small-cap assets outperformed, led by Memecoins. Ecosystem growth is driven by Ethereum scaling, institutional tokenized finance, and demand for compliant decentralized AI infrastructure. Four funding events raised about $17 million, mainly for data and infrastructure, signaling ongoing long-term development amid cautious short-term sentiment.

Gate Ventures: The cryptocurrency market rebounds, ETF fund inflows signal improvements in market structure.

According to ChainCatcher and Coinglass data, the current cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index is 45, indicating a state of fear. This is an increase of 18 points from yesterday. The 7-day average is 27, and the 30-day average is 23.

Data: The current Crypto Fear & Greed Index is 45, indicating a state of fear.

On January 6, with Bitcoin holding above $93,000, the crypto market saw funds shift from Meme coins to tokens with practical applications, notably AI-themed tokens. Functional indices like DeFi and metaverse rose over 4%, while Meme coin indices remained flat or declined. Render Network surged about 20%, and other AI tokens gained over 6%. This trend aligns with optimism in AI and tech stocks, though geopolitical risks and US employment data may impact sentiment. Continued Bitcoin ETF inflows are crucial for further gains.

Analysis: The crypto market's rebound momentum strengthens, with AI concept tokens outperforming Meme coins.

The CEO’s planned sale of nearly $10 million in shares is a routine asset allocation arrangement, but during a period of price correction, such actions can amplify market concerns over future performance and management confidence. In addition, a recent spate of home invasions targeting small crypto holders highlights the limitations of physical security and regulatory insurance coverage. If such risks spread, they could exert a negative impact on user confidence and regulatory attitudes.

Small crypto investors, including retirees and workers, are increasingly targeted by violent home invasions for theft, with over 215 physical crypto attacks recorded worldwide since 2020. The crimes are linked to Jarod Seemungal, aka Meow, who orchestrated attacks involving kidnapping and violence to access crypto assets. Coinbase's insurance covers server breaches but not coercion. Meanwhile, Russian hackers continue exploiting crypto wallets linked to the 2022 LastPass breach.

Crypto theft has shifted from online hacks to violent home invasions targeting ordinary investors.

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong dismissed concerns over his insider stock sales after it was revealed he sold $9.9 million in shares via a 10b5-1 plan without any purchases. Armstrong explained that diversifying his net worth after 13 years in the company is prudent and confirmed he remains heavily invested in Coinbase. The sales coincide with Coinbase’s expansion plans into an “everything exchange” offering crypto, equities, and commodities trading.

Brian Armstrong shrugs off insider selling concerns as Coinbase stock sales resurface

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Reminder: Please pay close attention to the following (all times are in Beijing time).

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