The short-term downward pressure on BBTC is limited by holder unrealized losses, with the price exhibiting strong resilience; $87,000 acts as a key support level, while dispersed positions and major players' dip-buying consolidate the rebound foundation. The market is expected to maintain an expansion toward the $92,000-$104,000 range. Asian demand, policy expectations, and the long-biased derivatives structure resonate, which presents volatility risks to the upside. Caution is required for potential selling pressure if the price breaks above the short-term cost zone. It is recommended to closely monitor strategy adjustments if $87,000 support fails or the cost area is breached; range trading is advisable.

Recently, BBTC prices have maintained an upward trend amid volatility, mainly because the average holding cost of short-term holders exceeds the current market price, putting them in an unrealized loss position and restraining large-scale profit-taking. This structural feature effectively offsets downward pressure during pullbacks, providing support to prices. However, caution is needed as prices approach the average holding cost, where previously losing holders may break even and prompt new selling behavior, opening a fresh short-term window for selling pressure. As long as prices stay below this cost, market resilience should persist; once prices break and close above it, attention should shift to short-term correction risks.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel notes that Bitcoin's current rise benefits from reduced selling pressure by short-term holders, who are currently at a loss since BTC trades below their average acquisition cost. This limits their profit-taking potential and suppresses sell pressure, explaining price resilience despite pullbacks. However, if BTC reaches $100,000, short-term holders may break even and start selling, creating price pressure. A key bullish signal is BTC closing above the short-term holders' realized price.

Analyst: The current BTC rise benefits from reduced selling pressure; if it reaches $100K, it will face selling from short-term holders.

During BBTC's gradual ascent, position concentration within the 5% range has slightly decreased, accompanying the price increase and indicating stronger dip-buying intentions by major players at the bottom. Meanwhile, significant buying interest has accumulated around $87,000, forming a solid foundation of support. Given this support level and ongoing position dispersion, a rebound toward the $92,000-$104,000 range appears sustainable; unless the price falls below the $87,000 defensive level, bulls remain in control.

On January 4, analyst Murphy noted that BTC's chip concentration within 5% of the January 1 price dropped from 14.9% to 14.5% by January 3, while BTC's price slowly rose. Historical data suggests that a decline in concentration amid rising prices indicates continued price increase. Significant BTC accumulation at $87,000 supports a range of $92,000-$104,000. Technical signals suggest a rebound is more likely than a false breakout unless BTC falls below $87,000.

Analysis: BTC chip concentration decreases, chip structure support is effective, rebound probability is higher than a false breakout followed by further decline.

Asian market demand continues to strengthen, and together with geopolitical and regulatory expectations, BBTC's external demand pool has increased, providing macro-level support for prices. At the same time, the expanding scale of long option configurations and straddle strategies in derivatives markets not only reflect short-covering needs but also show investors betting on future volatility to rise. This multi-sided market may trigger sharp short-term swings, but it also signals optimistic sentiment for continued momentum. If macro and compliance factors continue to develop, increased volatility may help facilitate upward price breakthroughs.

QCP's market analysis on January 5 highlights a strengthening crypto market in Asia, with Bitcoin and Ethereum surpassing $92,000 and $3,100 respectively, driven by US actions in Venezuela, year-end tax-loss trading, and rising crypto legislation expectations. Speculation about Venezuela holding significant "shadow Bitcoin reserves" and using USDT in oil trades could make it a major sovereign BTC holder. Options data show a bullish shift, with increased call options and straddle strategies indicating short covering and bets on upward volatility.

QCP: Venezuela Situation and Options Funding Resonance Strengthen Bullish Expectations in the Crypto Market

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