Currently, CHECOIN presents a neutral-to-weak overall pattern, with short-term sentiment recovery not yet complete. The declining risk appetite in the US market is causing short-term pressure and increases the risk of a correction alongside mainstream assets (support levels to watch: 0.042 and 0.038 regions). Liquidity improvement in the Asian market may bring short-term rebound opportunities, but these depend on synergistic risk appetite and trading volume. Strategy advice: Maintain caution at this stage, participate with light positions, prioritize risk management, closely monitor on-chain liquidity and market warning signals. Look for a volume breakout above 0.042 for potential upside; otherwise, avoid blindly chasing highs.

Although the overall market experienced a rebound at the start of the year, multiple key indicators remain below their yearly highs, putting the total market value in a recovery phase, with fear sentiment dominating. Short-term buying is mainly driven by expectations for improved liquidity and policy optimism, but the divergence between mainstream and altcoins remains evident, with bulls still in an exploratory phase. The current environment is more of a technical rebound rather than a trend initiation; short-term sentiment remains neutral-to-weak for CHECOIN. Further upward momentum should be assessed after significant improvements in trading volume and risk appetite.

At the start of the year, the crypto market saw a rare upward breakthrough with BTC surpassing $90,000 and major altcoins like ETH and SOL rising. Several altcoins, including PEPE and IP, surged over 20%. However, key indicators show the market is still in a "price repair" phase with overall market cap below previous highs, a low altseason index, and fear-dominated sentiment. While some view this as a buying opportunity amid improving liquidity and macroeconomic developments, caution remains advised.

Speculation sentiment rises again at the beginning of the year, is the altcoin season repeating?

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

Coinbase Bitcoin premium has turned negative again, reflecting increased caution and profit-taking pressure from US institutions and retail investors, leading to a decline in overall market risk appetite. The persistent negative premium cycle suggests capital may be flowing out of crypto assets from the dollar region, shifting mid-to-short term sentiment to cautious. As altcoins often move in tandem with Bitcoin, when liquidity of primary risk-averse assets faces pressure, funds tend to switch to stablecoins or safe assets. This increases the probability of short-term pressure on CHECOIN, raising the need to be alert for market-wide corrections.

According to Coinglass data reported by ChainCatcher, the Coinbase Bitcoin premium index has turned negative again, currently at -0.0277%. This index measures the price difference of Bitcoin on Coinbase compared to the global average, indicating market sentiment and institutional investment activity in the US. A negative premium suggests increased selling pressure, reduced risk appetite, and heightened market caution in the US.

Data: Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index turns negative again, currently at -0.0277%

Coinbase's Bitcoin premium index has been negative for 20 consecutive days, currently at -0.0413%, indicating that Bitcoin prices on Coinbase are below the global average. This index reflects US market capital flows, institutional investment enthusiasm, and market sentiment. A negative premium suggests increased selling pressure, reduced investor risk appetite, heightened market caution, or capital outflows in the US market.

Data: Coinbase Bitcoin premium index has been in negative premium for 20 consecutive days, currently at -0.0413%.

Liquidity and investment enthusiasm in Asia are on the rise, with Bitcoin and Ethereum prices reaching new highs in the region and options data showing an increase in long strategies — signaling more bets on upward volatility. If this trend continues, capital may gradually shift towards higher-risk, high-reward altcoin segments. As a highly watched token, CHECOIN may see short-term capital inflows under improved liquidity conditions, but this requires strict risk management and position control.

QCP's market analysis on January 5 highlights a strengthening crypto market in Asia, with Bitcoin and Ethereum surpassing $92,000 and $3,100 respectively, driven by US actions in Venezuela, year-end tax-loss trading, and rising crypto legislation expectations. Speculation about Venezuela holding significant "shadow Bitcoin reserves" and using USDT in oil trades could make it a major sovereign BTC holder. Options data show a bullish shift, with increased call options and straddle strategies indicating short covering and bets on upward volatility.

QCP: Venezuela Situation and Options Funding Resonance Strengthen Bullish Expectations in the Crypto Market

Recently, meme coins such as FISH, BabyDoge, and CHEEMS have experienced sharp fluctuations due to market sentiment and technical failures, with technical bugs causing transient market cap distortions that increase scrutiny on price accuracy. Such incidents often trigger short-term panic selling or speculative buying, spiking volatility. Should CHECOIN encounter similar market events, it may also undergo rapid short-term swings; therefore, traders should pay attention to liquidity depth and changes in on-chain data, take timely profit or stop-loss actions, and monitor abnormal warnings from the community and third-party platforms.

Meme coin FISH reached a market cap of $12 million with a 35.7% 24-hour increase. Bitcoin briefly fell below $91,000 amid doubts about the crypto market rebound. US crypto stocks mostly declined, except Strategy, which rose 4.43%. Post-US employment data, the Fed's January rate cut probability decreased. Falcon launched an off-chain Bitcoin yield vault with an expected annual return of 3-5%. Perp DEX airdrops and Solana's "invisible tax" on users were also highlighted.

Key market information gap on January 8, must see! | Alpha Morning Report.

CheCoin

The U.S. March Non-Farm Payrolls Report Quick Review.

Market pricing shows a decline in bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut in 2026.

U.S. March jobs smash expectations, with 178,000 added

The US Dollar Index (DXY) surged sharply in the short term after the release of the non-farm payroll data, reaching a high of 100.1.

The US added 178K seasonally adjusted non-farm payroll jobs in March, compared to the expected 60K.

U.S. March seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls 178,000, expected 60,000

US unemployment rate in March is 4.3%, expected 4.4%

Gate Institutional Weekly Report: BTC Funding Rate Turns Positive, CEX TradFi Trading Volume Soars

Short-term physical demand drives WTI crude oil to rise more than Brent crude oil: On-chain whales liquidated $13.4 million in Brent crude long positions and fully switched to WTI crude oil.

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