Amid complex regulatory expectations and the resonance of high volatility among major cryptocurrencies, GBEX is expected to experience a phased improvement in liquidity in the short term, but linkage risks are significant in a high-leverage environment. If the key support zones are breached, concentrated sell-offs may be triggered. Investors are advised to adopt light positions and dynamic stop-loss strategies, monitor the sustainability of trading volume, avoid blindly chasing highs, and prioritize risk hedging.

Recently, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's regulatory authority released a list designating unlicensed virtual asset trading platforms as key warning targets, pointing out that investors on these platforms face risks such as withdrawal difficulties or even total loss of assets. This regulatory move has heightened market attention to platform compliance and may result in increased risk-averse sentiment in the short term, affecting capital flows and liquidity performance for the entire sector, including GBEX. Investors need to remain vigilant to avoid being caught in the chain reaction of concentrated sell-offs during market turbulence.

The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) has warned the public about Globiance X Limited / Globiance HK Limited and CoinCola, which claim to operate virtual asset trading platforms in Hong Kong without SFC licenses. These entities are suspected of unlicensed activities and have been added to the SFC's warning list. Investors have reported withdrawal difficulties with Globiance-related platforms, highlighting risks of unregulated platforms including potential total loss.

Hong Kong SFC warns: Globiance, CoinCola involved in operating virtual asset trading platforms without licenses

Several market research institutions have indicated that the crypto market is showing structural turning point signals, with the prices of major cryptocurrencies breaking above key levels and signs of active arbitrage and hedging strategies emerging. This suggests that market risk appetite is gradually rebounding and buy-side demand is accumulating. As a market participant, GBEX is expected to benefit from the overall improvement in liquidity in the short term, presenting relative resilience or even opportunities to follow mainstream assets upward. However, attention should still be paid to whether subsequent trading volumes can continue to expand.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

QCP's market analysis on January 5 highlights a strengthening crypto market in Asia, with Bitcoin and Ethereum surpassing $92,000 and $3,100 respectively, driven by US actions in Venezuela, year-end tax-loss trading, and rising crypto legislation expectations. Speculation about Venezuela holding significant "shadow Bitcoin reserves" and using USDT in oil trades could make it a major sovereign BTC holder. Options data show a bullish shift, with increased call options and straddle strategies indicating short covering and bets on upward volatility.

QCP: Venezuela Situation and Options Funding Resonance Strengthen Bullish Expectations in the Crypto Market

According to data from ChainCatcher and Coinglass, if Bitcoin falls below the $86,000 to $89,000 range, billions of dollars in long positions could be liquidated; conversely, breaking above the $95,000 to $98,000 range would trigger concentrated short covering. Such potential chain reactions in highly leveraged positions are likely to amplify market volatility in the short term. As a risk asset, GBEX similarly faces the risk of sharp price swings in step with major cryptocurrencies. Investors are advised to manage their positions carefully around current price levels and set strict profit-taking and stop-loss strategies to prepare for sudden market squeezes.

According to ChainCatcher and Coinglass data, if BTC falls below $89,266, the total long position liquidation on major centralized exchanges (CEX) will reach $2.396 billion. Conversely, if BTC breaks above $98,140, the total short position liquidation on major CEXs will reach $1.245 billion.

Data: If BTC falls below $89,266, the total long liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $2.396 billion.

According to ChainCatcher and Coinglass data, if BTC falls below $86,724, the total long position liquidation on major centralized exchanges (CEX) will reach $1.309 billion. Conversely, if BTC breaks above $95,466, the total short position liquidation on major CEX will reach $1.013 billion.

Data: If BTC falls below $86,724, the total long liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $1.309 billion.

Globiance Exchange

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ECB Governing Council member Villeroy: The next key interest rate adjustment is very likely to be an increase.

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