The crypto market is currently at the early stage of a phased stabilization. Although on-chain and derivatives market sentiment is showing signs of recovery, the rebound mainly stems from short-term technical adjustments rather than structural bull market signals. MARCO faces short-term liquidity constraints, with active funds concentrated in a few leading contracts, making prices susceptible to shocks and increased volatility. Investors are advised to build positions in batches and dynamically manage allocations. Pay attention to the $5.80 resistance on the upside and beware of the risk of breaking the $4.90 support on the downside. Focus on fundamentally-driven mid- to long-term allocations, control short-term chasing and liquidity risks, and aim for stable generation of excess returns.

Recent on-chain sentiment indicators suggest that the crypto market may be in a phase of bottoming out and recovery, with market participants beginning to anticipate asset stabilization and trend reversal. However, since the data samples remain limited, the current rebound is more likely a technical bounce rather than a confirmed bull market, and traders should be wary of a sharp pullback after highs. In addition, short-term capital may take profits quickly after testing buys, potentially leading to increased market volatility. It is recommended to stay flexible with position management, build holdings in batches, and set reasonable take-profit and stop-loss thresholds.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

Derivatives market data shows insufficient activity in short-term contracts, with nearly half of short-cycle products seeing no trades at all over 24 hours, reflecting a lack of enthusiasm for high-frequency trading among market participants. While capital is concentrating in a few leading contracts, long-term thematic bets are receiving greater liquidity and attention. For MARCO, this could mean facing price deviations caused by short-term liquidity constraints, while long-term value will depend on the project's fundamentals and macro events. Investors should weigh liquidity costs and potential returns between short-term rapid trading and mid- to long-term holding.

Melega

Crypto traders fade 2026 Fed cuts as U.S. unemployment dips, but risk assets hold bid

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The Federal Reserve expects to cut interest rates twice this year to support the labor market.

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Stronger, broader hiring could ease Fed job market worries

Fed's Daly: The Federal Reserve should focus on the employment rate rather than employment data.

Market Edges Higher; Strong U.S. Jobs Data Complicates Rate Outlook

KPMG: The Federal Reserve is expected to be forced to raise interest rates in the second half of the year.

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Market Analysis: Significant Increase in Non-Farm Payrolls Eases Employment Market Concerns, Fed's Cautious Stance Expected to Continue

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