POOLX has a first-mover advantage in breaking through the current liquidity bottleneck in prediction markets with innovations in perpetual contracts. It is recommended to prioritize high-attention, long-cycle thematic products to strengthen platform depth and user stickiness. At the same time, expanding new asset classes (such as real estate) as ecological scenarios will enhance trading diversity and investor coverage. Given the warm-up trend of the crypto derivatives market, launching yield products in a timely manner can cater to diversified risk preferences, but risk control, settlement management, and maintaining short-term contract liquidity must be strengthened. In the medium to long term, POOLX is expected to gain liquidity premiums and increased market share, with a recommended target to lock in over $2 million daily trading volume for long-cycle contracts as a key growth indicator.

Current prediction markets generally suffer from insufficient liquidity and low capital efficiency, with platforms mostly relying on binary options models, making it difficult to support large-scale trading. To overcome this "local optimum" dilemma, evolving towards a perpetual contract model is a key path. If POOLX can take the lead in launching perpetual contract products, it is expected to significantly enhance market depth and user stickiness, while also achieving premium advantages in price discovery and risk hedging, thereby forming long-term competitive edges.

The article critically examines the current state of prediction markets, arguing they have fallen into a "local optimum" trap similar to past tech failures like BlackBerry and Yahoo. While binary options models have gained short-term traction, they suffer from liquidity shortages and low capital efficiency. The author advocates evolving prediction markets toward a perpetual contract model to achieve a truly universal, liquid market, emphasizing the need for radical redesign and humility to overcome structural limitations and realize their full potential.

Falling into a local optimum, market predictions should not stop here.

The article discusses the challenges of market making in prediction markets, highlighting that less than 10% survive until year-end. Unlike AMM-based markets, prediction markets rely on order book models with higher operational complexity, inventory risk, and volatile, jumpy price movements driven by discrete events. Successful market making requires advanced strategies and risk management, often beyond ordinary users' capabilities. Leading platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi invest heavily in liquidity subsidies, creating strong barriers for new entrants and reinforcing dominant players.

Prediction markets are tough: less than 10% may actually survive until the end of the year.

Real estate prediction markets provide users with tools to hedge or speculate on price fluctuations without holding physical assets, settled by transparent daily housing price indices. This innovative model widens the application boundaries of prediction markets and presents a reference for POOLX ecosystem diversification. By drawing lessons from such compliant, data-driven market designs, POOLX can expand to more traditional asset categories, increasing platform trading frequency and user coverage.

Polymarket has launched a new real estate prediction market in partnership with Parcl, using Parcl's daily housing price indices as transparent settlement data. This allows users to trade predictions on monthly, quarterly, or annual home price movements in major U.S. cities via USDC on Polygon. The market provides a novel way to hedge or speculate on real estate price risks without selling physical assets, introducing liquidity and real-time pricing to a traditionally illiquid market.

How to trade real estate in prediction markets

Analysis shows that short-term (within 1 day) prediction contracts have low trading concentration, with average daily trading volumes of only several tens of thousands of dollars, while long-term (over 30 days) contract liquidity is dozens of times higher. POOLX's current short-term products face low user trading willingness, but in political and macro thematic contracts, deep arbitrage opportunities from major players can be leveraged. The platform should focus on supporting long-cycle, high-attention contract types to attract core liquidity and use differential incentive mechanisms to fill the liquidity gap in short-term contracts.

Overall, the 24-hour trading volume and open interest of crypto derivatives exchanges are showing a modest upward trend, and with the weakening of macro uncertainties, bullish sentiment has somewhat recovered. If POOLX can simultaneously introduce savings-type or yield-type derivatives to meet current market demand for compliant yield tools, it is expected to gain greater traffic. However, as short-term investor sentiment becomes more volatile, the platform needs to maintain caution in risk control and settlement mechanisms to prevent shocks from unexpected events.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

Over the weekend, Perp DEX trading volumes were sluggish, with Hyperliquid leading at approximately $3.09B in 24-hour trading volume and an open interest of $7.77B, marking a 10% increase from the previous week. Variational and Paradex saw continuous growth, ranking fourth and fifth respectively. Other notable platforms include Lighter, Aster, EdgeX, and Pacifica, each with varying trading volumes, TVL, and open interest.

Overview of Major Perp DEXs: Weekend Trading Volume Slumps Across Platforms, Hyperliquid Open Interest Increases by 10% Compared to Last Week

In the past 24 hours, the crypto market experienced diverse dynamics ranging from macroeconomic discussions to ecosystem developments. Key topics included warnings about on-chain price manipulation, AI-driven prediction market strategies, and geopolitical risks affecting supply. Notably, Venezuela reportedly holds over 600,000 BTC "shadow reserves" worth $60 billion, potentially impacting market supply. Walmart announced Bitcoin payment acceptance, signaling mainstream crypto adoption. Solana's on-chain spot volume hit $1.6 trillion, and Ethereum's stablecoin settlement reached a record $8 trillion in Q4 2025. Perp DEX markets are recovering, while concerns about physical security risks for holders persist.

Venezuela's 60 billion BTC "shadow reserves," Walmart supports Bitcoin payments, what is the overseas crypto community discussing today?

Meme coin FISH reached a market cap of $12 million with a 35.7% 24-hour increase. Bitcoin briefly fell below $91,000 amid doubts about the crypto market rebound. US crypto stocks mostly declined, except Strategy, which rose 4.43%. Post-US employment data, the Fed's January rate cut probability decreased. Falcon launched an off-chain Bitcoin yield vault with an expected annual return of 3-5%. Perp DEX airdrops and Solana's "invisible tax" on users were also highlighted.

Key market information gap on January 8, must see! | Alpha Morning Report.

Poolz Finance

Market Holds Steady; US Jobs Data Exceeds Expectations

Crypto Market Remains Range-Bound; US Jobs Report Exceeds Expectations

Institutions: The stronger-than-expected rebound in March non-farm payrolls demonstrates the resilience of the US labor market, with inflation currently being the core variable in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

Huatai Securities: March Nonfarm Payroll Data Reflects Resilience of the US Job Market, Inflation Becomes the Core Variable in Fed Policy

Crypto traders fade 2026 Fed cuts as U.S. unemployment dips, but risk assets hold bid

The IMF calls on the Bank of Japan to continue raising interest rates.

The Federal Reserve expects to cut interest rates twice this year to support the labor market.

CICC: Investment demand and prices for gold may both have room for upward correction.

Stronger, broader hiring could ease Fed job market worries

Fed's Daly: The Federal Reserve should focus on the employment rate rather than employment data.

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