SWIFT token’s current liquidity is marginally recovering and selling pressure is easing, creating potential for a technical rebound in the short term. Pay attention to key support ranges (Recommendation: if intraday trading volume significantly increases and the price holds above the support, consider buying on dips; expected short-term volatility range is 5‒8%). However, due to regulatory uncertainty and the integration pressure of external digital assets, the valuation center lacks upward momentum. The long-term outlook will depend on the implementation of policy frameworks and clear technological roadmaps. Fragmented and shallow liquidity in the derivatives market increases short-term volatility risks. Strict stop-losses and position controls are recommended, alongside close monitoring of regulatory developments and changes in trading depth, to guard against severe price swings caused by large concentrated trades.

Recently, market liquidity has recovered marginally, showing signs of reduced selling pressure near key support levels, which may catalyze a modest price rebound. Institutional analysts point out that as market fees and trading volumes remain subdued, although the capital side has improved, it is still insufficient to drive a sustained upward move. In the short term, investors can watch for signals of increasing trading volume and price divergence; if intraday trading volume rises sharply while the price remains range-bound, it means bears are gradually exiting, and short-term rebound opportunities become more apparent.

Analyst Willy Woo tweeted that he expects a short-term rebound in January due to rising liquidity, signaling a bottoming bounce. However, based on trading volume and fees, he remains bearish on the long-term macro cycle, describing the market as bleak.

Willy Woo: There will be a short-term bottoming rebound in January.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

Former SWIFT executives have suggested that once the regulatory framework is clarified, SWIFT might adopt external crypto assets to improve cross-border settlement efficiency. This direction implies that alternative digital assets have advantages in transparency, cost, and speed, potentially impacting the value positioning of SWIFT tokens. In the short term, with regulations still unclear, strong wait-and-see sentiment dominates the market, making it difficult for the token to achieve substantial valuation improvement. Over the medium to long term, it is necessary to closely track regulatory dynamics and integration progress to assess the pricing logic of SWIFT tokens in the new ecosystem.

Former SWIFT CEO Gottfried Leibbrandt suggests SWIFT may adopt Ripple's cryptocurrency XRP once regulatory clarity improves and market volatility decreases. While banks are currently hesitant due to legal uncertainties and currency fluctuations, XRP offers faster, cheaper, and more transparent cross-border payments. As regulations evolve, integrating XRP could transform international transfers and become essential for banks to remain competitive in the future financial ecosystem.

SWIFT May Adopt XRP Once Crypto Regulations Clear, Says Ex-CEO

External reports indicate that liquidity in the crypto derivatives market is weak for short-term contracts, with high trading concentration and insufficient depth. This means the SWIFT token faces greater slippage risk during periods of high-frequency volatility, and market sentiment can be easily swayed by large orders, keeping short-term speculation strong. Investors need to pay attention to changes in trading depth and the widening of spreads. When differences between buy and sell orders intensify, volatility will further magnify, and short-term sentiment may continue to present violent 'buy-high, sell-low' swings.

SwiftCash

The Bank of Canada: The Iran war should not overshadow other economic risks.

Global markets are fretting about growth due to the war in Iran. A slowdown is something stocks can handle. However, the risk that the global economy tips the wrong way is also increasing.

Fed's Musalem: The current interest rate setting remains appropriate

BoE's Bailey: Markets getting ahead of themselves by pricing in rate hikes – Reuters

Exclusive: Bank of England's Bailey says investors should not count on UK rate hikes

What Friday's high-profile US jobs report means for Bitcoin price

Is the Middle East war really coming to an end?

Eurozone: Inflation sparks ECB rate repricing – DBS

Bitunix Analyst: Employment Cooling Combined with Further Energy Contraction, War Spillover to Tech Infrastructure, Market Enters "Risk Pricing Distortion" Phase

Goldman Sachs: Fed's rate hike expectations remain low for the year

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