In the current low-leverage environment, W is increasingly sensitive to incremental capital inflows, with short-term trading activity rebounding noticeably. Technically, if W can hold the 0.01280-0.01290 support zone, it is expected to continue testing the 0.01350-0.01420 level. The strength of this rebound still depends on whether Bitcoin breaks through the key resistance at $75,000. Caution is needed for a pullback in risk appetite should the broader market fail to break through, which could lead W to retrace as well. Watch the effectiveness of support at 0.01170-0.01200. Strategy advice: Consider short-term gradual positioning, but strictly manage stop-losses and closely monitor capital flows and BTC's key price levels.

Since October last year, open interest in Bitcoin futures has decreased from $42 billion to $21 billion, indicating a marked contraction in financial leverage. In the current de-leveraged market, even a small amount of incremental capital can trigger price elasticity. Against this backdrop, W's major transactions rebounded on April 16, with daily trading volume up nearly 70% compared to the previous day, highlighting increased attention to lesser-known tokens in low-leverage environments and a bullish short-term sentiment.

Bitcoin futures open interest has halved from $42 billion in October 2025 to $21 billion, indicating a deep market deleveraging. Current low leverage means even small capital inflows can significantly impact prices. Funding rates have fluctuated sharply between -12% and +7%, showing rapid shifts in market sentiment. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, no major liquidations have occurred since early February, reflecting a healthier position structure. Bitcoin awaits a clear directional trend amid heightened market sensitivity.

Analysis: The market has undergone a round of deep deleveraging, and Bitcoin is waiting to choose a direction.

Bitcoin has recently twice broken above the $74,000 high, approaching the 'volatility release point' near $75,000, where a negative gamma effect in derivatives may trigger accelerated volatility. If this level is truly breached, market risk appetite could further increase, positively driving W due to its strong correlation with BTC movements. Conversely, a pullback may prompt increased short pressure in derivatives, dragging down spot performance.

Bitcoin has surpassed a four-week high, rising above $74,000. Analysts identify $75,000 as a critical "volatility release point," where derivative market negative gamma effects may amplify price fluctuations. This level coincides with Bitcoin's 100-day moving average, a key resistance in January. Breaking $75,000 could accelerate an uptrend, while a pullback may increase downward pressure. The $80,000–$80,600 range is a positive gamma zone with lower volatility, and the 200-day moving average at $87,519 serves as a long-term reference.

Analysis: Bitcoin breaks four-week high, key price range may intensify market volatility

Bitcoin has surpassed a four-week high, rising above $74,000. Analysts identify $75,000 as a critical "volatility release point," where price fluctuations may intensify due to negative gamma effects in the derivatives market. This level coincides with Bitcoin's 100-day moving average, previously a major resistance in January. Breaking above $75,000 could accelerate the uptrend, while a decline may increase downward pressure. The $80,000–$80,600 range marks a positive gamma zone with lower volatility, and the 200-day moving average at $87,519 serves as a long-term reference.

Analysis: Bitcoin breaks through a four-week high, key price range may intensify market volatility

Since the mid-March high of 0.01955, W has moved downward, forming a base near 0.01168 without making new lows after several tests. On April 16, W recorded a closing price of 0.01322 with a significant surge in trading volume, bringing short-term activity back to the center. On the daily chart, the prior sequence of declines has temporarily reversed. If support at 0.01280-0.01290 holds, further attempts to break into the 0.01350-0.01420 region are anticipated.

Although market risk appetite has recovered, classic technical analysis rules remind us: a bullish flag must complete its pattern and break out within four weeks, otherwise it cannot be considered a reliable bull flag. Bitcoin’s seven-week channel hasn’t met this condition, so caution is warranted—mid-term range-bound trading could persist. If Bitcoin experiences a sharp pullback breaking key support, W will also face short-term pressure, with the validity of support at 0.01170-0.01200 needing further verification.

Wormhole

It’s not a given that the European Central Bank’s next move on interest rates will be a hike, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks.

Kazaks: Will not oppose bets on two interest rate hikes this year

Waller: Rapid resolution of the Middle East situation may allow for interest rate cuts later this year.

Waller: Overall PCE inflation year-over-year in March may reach 3.5%

The Federal Reserve's Waller expressed caution regarding interest rates, warning of the risks of prolonged warfare.

Fed's Daly: Rates May Remain Unchanged

Daly: The federal funds rate is slightly above the neutral level of 3%.

UBS Expects 50 bps Fed Rate Cuts as Gov Miran Downplays Inflation Risks

Federal Reserve's Daly: On hold regarding interest rates.

Easing tensions in the Middle East combined with rising expectations of interest rate cuts have pushed gold close to $4,900.

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