The current 1HUB market sentiment leans defensive, influenced by sustained losses from large long positions, which have dampened investors' willingness to chase rallies. In the short term, a weak and range-bound trend is expected (reference interval: 0.82-0.95). Trading volume and liquidity have shown no significant improvement, major contracts remain inactive, and structural capital is lacking. It is recommended to closely monitor subsequent breakthroughs in trading volume and price range. The short-term strategy should be mainly observational, while optimizing products and liquidity incentives is key for the medium to long term.

The largest on-chain long position holders have suffered continued losses recently, failing to take profits at higher levels. This has caused market participants to adopt a cautious approach toward chasing upsides. In the short term, overall sentiment remains defensive, with investors preferring to stay on the sidelines. The capital environment is unlikely to push prices up significantly, and 1HUB may remain weak and range-bound in the near term.

Since January 2, HYPE has gained over 13%, reaching a high of $27.4. The largest long whale on-chain, holding about $36.44 million with an average price of $38.6, still faces a $17 million unrealized loss, down from $20 million. This whale, suspected of insider trading before HYPE's Robinhood listing, has incurred over $1 million in funding fee losses over two months.

HYPE has recently seen a significant increase, but the largest on-chain HYPE long position is still stuck with an unrealized loss of 17 million due to an average cost of $38.

Analysis institutions indicate that after a period of volatility, the broader crypto market is showing initial signs of stabilization. From both macro and industry perspectives, some trends are improving, yet trading volume has not substantially increased, and further data is required to confirm the trend. 1HUB should focus on monitoring effective breakouts in subsequent trading volume and price structure to verify whether the bulls can take control of the market.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua stated that respected investors like Buffett profit from value and trends, not speculation. He affirmed that 2024 is set to be a bull market due to macro and industry factors beyond individual control. Short sellers are making a final effort but face losses—exiting early means small losses, exiting late means large losses. After a month of market volatility, optimism will prevail while pessimists lag behind.

Yi Lihua: Trend is better than speculation, the bull market is set, bears face "small losses early, big losses late."

Compared to major prediction markets and sports betting scenarios, short-term contract trading depth is generally insufficient, with most contracts recording no trades within 24 hours. Liquidity is highly concentrated in a few top contracts. This shows that 1HUB still faces challenges in promoting and acquiring liquidity for derivatives and perpetual contracts. Trading depth cannot be rapidly expanded in the short term, so product design and incentive mechanism optimization are needed to attract more trading capital.

The article critically examines the current state of prediction markets, arguing they have fallen into a "local optimum" trap similar to past tech failures like BlackBerry and Yahoo. While binary options models have gained short-term traction, they suffer from liquidity shortages and low capital efficiency. The author advocates evolving prediction markets toward a perpetual contract model to achieve a truly universal, liquid market, emphasizing the need for radical redesign and humility to overcome structural limitations and realize their full potential.

Falling into a local optimum, market predictions should not stop here.

1Hub.ai

Singapore expected to tighten monetary policy as energy crisis fans inflation

The crypto market surged and then pulled back, with the RWA sector leading the decline at 4.18%.

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The Bank of Japan will probably increase its benchmark rate this month to avoid falling behind on controlling inflation, according to a former executive director at the central bank.

Emerging market stocks posted their largest single-day gain since March 2020, as investors focused on the US-Iran ceasefire.

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