BMT has been impacted by crude oil price shocks and macro event expectations, leading to a simultaneous rise in market risk aversion and volatility, with a significant contraction in short-term risk appetite of capital. Technically, BMT is currently oscillating within the 0.0147—0.0158 range. Attention should be paid to the 0.0146 support below—if broken, it could test 0.0143. The upper resistance is at 0.0158—0.0160, and a breakout may restore rebound momentum. Investors are advised to maintain position control, enter on dips, and closely monitor the release of major macro data and trading volume changes. Avoid chasing highs, and adjust trading strategies flexibly in response to range oscillations and sudden volatility.

Recently, due to Middle East tensions causing crude oil transport disruptions, international oil prices surged nearly 30% in a single day, rapidly heightening market risk aversion. The spillover effect of energy risk has intensified sell pressure on crypto assets, with BMT falling from the 0.0179 high to around 0.0165 since mid-February. Notably, trading volume surged during oil price volatility, indicating weaker demand for risk assets among investors.

In response to the oil price surge triggered by the Iran conflict, Trump stated, "Let it rise," with no plans to use strategic petroleum reserves. White House officials revealed the Treasury may announce measures as early as Thursday to address rising oil prices, potentially including intervention in the oil futures market.

Futures Hotspot Tracking

Crude oil prices surged nearly 30% due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, causing a severe supply shock and hitting Asia-Pacific stock markets hard, with major indices plunging sharply. The energy crisis has prompted G7 and IEA to consider releasing strategic reserves. Meanwhile, Bitcoin remains volatile under macroeconomic pressures, with mixed market sentiment amid geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns, as institutional investors hedge against potential downturns.

Trading Moment: Crude Oil Soars 30%, Hitting Asia-Pacific Stock Markets Hard, Bitcoin Still Under Macro Control.

With the approach of US nonfarm payroll data, market sensitivity to macro data has significantly increased, and short-term implied volatility has surpassed the high level of 65%, making risk appetite more cautious. On March 11, BMT saw a surge in trading volume and long candle shadows in the candlestick chart, reflecting heightened expectations of volatility ahead of macro events. The range-bound pattern may continue in the short term.

The upcoming non-farm payroll data is highly anticipated and could be the key to breaking the current deadlock. Oil prices have been volatile, disrupting expectations of an interest rate cut. Tonight's non-farm data release is expected to significantly impact market trends.

Mainstream crypto assets are facing divergent sentiment: on one hand, spot incremental funds are accumulating positions; on the other, derivatives market shorts are intensifying, and funding rates remain negative, without effective de-leveraging squeeze so far. These divergences are spilling over from the crypto market to altcoins, resulting in BMT being unable to sustain rallies even during brief market rebounds and displaying technical characteristics of high-level pullbacks.

Bitcoin fell below $70,000 amid a market split, with institutional spot buyers accumulating Bitcoin while derivatives traders increased short positions. Historically, simultaneous spot accumulation and negative funding rates can trigger a short squeeze, but this is not guaranteed. The recent pullback reflects short-term profit-taking, with some investors cashing out after rebounds. Despite a recent rally, confidence in sustained gains remains low, and derivatives market sentiment stays bearish, even as spot demand persists.

Analysis: Bitcoin surged then pulled back, falling below $70K, as institutional spot buying clashes with derivatives short positions.

From the daily chart perspective, after BMT started a rebound from 0.0164 at the beginning of the year, it gradually declined under resistance at the 0.0179 level and is currently oscillating repeatedly in the 0.0147—0.0158 range. The 0.0146 area below is key support; if lost, it may further test 0.0143. The 0.0158—0.0160 area above is initial resistance, and a breakout may restart the intermediate rebound. Investors are advised to pay attention to support absorption during dips, control positions, be cautious when chasing highs, and formulate trading rhythm based on macro events and trading volume changes.

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