BTCPX is currently at a pivotal range for long and short trading, with support at $86,000–$89,000 and resistance at $94,000–$98,000 forming the core for short-term trades. A break below $86,100 could trigger massive long liquidations, swiftly amplifying downside risk; a breakout above $95,000 may activate short covering and propel the price towards $98,000–$104,000. The dispersion of holdings and growth in derivatives longs both support medium-term upside potential, but caution is needed near $100,000 due to the risk of concentrated selling. Trading suggestion: Closely watch the effective break of these key levels, adjust risk control dynamically with changes in volume and volatility, and participate prudently in trend-following.

BTCPX currently faces major technical nodes concentrated in the $86,000–$89,000 and $94,000–$98,000 range. If the price breaks down through the $86,100–$86,700 area, it will trigger long liquidation pressure exceeding $10 billion, thereby intensifying short-term downside risk. Conversely, a breakout above the $94,300–$95,500 resistance will spark massive short covering worth several billion dollars, pushing the price towards $98,000 or even higher. The liquidation thresholds in this range highlight traders’ intense risk-taking at key prices, and close attention should be paid to how the price tests and breaks these ranges.

According to ChainCatcher and Coinglass data, if BTC falls below $89,266, the total long position liquidation on major centralized exchanges (CEX) will reach $2.396 billion. Conversely, if BTC breaks above $98,140, the total short position liquidation on major CEXs will reach $1.245 billion.

Data: If BTC falls below $89,266, the total long liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $2.396 billion.

According to ChainCatcher and Coinglass data, if BTC falls below $86,724, the total long position liquidation on major centralized exchanges (CEX) will reach $1.309 billion. Conversely, if BTC breaks above $95,466, the total short position liquidation on major CEX will reach $1.013 billion.

Data: If BTC falls below $86,724, the total long liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $1.309 billion.

According to ChainCatcher and Coinglass data, if BTC surpasses $94,311, the total short position liquidation on major centralized exchanges (CEX) will reach $2.798 billion. Conversely, if BTC falls below $86,127, the total long position liquidation on major CEX will amount to $1.834 billion.

Data: If BTC breaks $94,311, the total short liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $2.798 billion.

According to ChainCatcher and Coinglass data, if BTC falls below $86,170, the total long position liquidation on major centralized exchanges (CEX) will reach $1.229 billion. Conversely, if BTC breaks above $95,088, the total short position liquidation on major CEXs will reach $1.225 billion.

Data: If BTC falls below $86,170, the total long liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $1.229 billion.

The current rise in BTCPX is largely fueled by short-term holders being trapped and thus suppressing selling pressure. When the price is below their average entry cost, holders lack profit motivation, which slows down sell-offs. If the price approaches and closes effectively near the psychological $100,000 mark, short-term holders may reach break-even or small profits, potentially triggering concentrated selling and introducing new pressure. Watching whether the price consistently stays above the average entry price of short-term holders will be key for bulls to confirm the continuation of the trend.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel notes that Bitcoin's current rise benefits from reduced selling pressure by short-term holders, who are currently at a loss since BTC trades below their average acquisition cost. This limits their profit-taking potential and suppresses sell pressure, explaining price resilience despite pullbacks. However, if BTC reaches $100,000, short-term holders may break even and start selling, creating price pressure. A key bullish signal is BTC closing above the short-term holders' realized price.

Analyst: The current BTC rise benefits from reduced selling pressure; if it reaches $100K, it will face selling from short-term holders.

Market data show that holding concentration has declined during the gradual price rise, indicating significant new funds are rapidly spreading out. Historically, when the dispersion of holdings rises together with price, there is often further upside potential. Currently, prominent buy-side support near the $87,000 level provides a solid foundation for price expansion towards the $92,000–$104,000 area, granting further validation for medium-term accumulation signals.

On January 4, analyst Murphy noted that BTC's chip concentration within 5% of the January 1 price dropped from 14.9% to 14.5% by January 3, while BTC's price slowly rose. Historical data suggests that a decline in concentration amid rising prices indicates continued price increase. Significant BTC accumulation at $87,000 supports a range of $92,000-$104,000. Technical signals suggest a rebound is more likely than a false breakout unless BTC falls below $87,000.

Analysis: BTC chip concentration decreases, chip structure support is effective, rebound probability is higher than a false breakout followed by further decline.

Looking at the liquidity structure of options and ETF contracts, bullish sentiment has clearly increased. There is a rise in call option positions and active straddle strategies, indicating some institutions are offsetting short positions or buying volatility to hedge risks while betting on further price swings upward. Additionally, greater activity in Asian markets is providing external momentum for bulls, likely accelerating price moves during periods of concentrated market liquidity.

QCP's market analysis on January 5 highlights a strengthening crypto market in Asia, with Bitcoin and Ethereum surpassing $92,000 and $3,100 respectively, driven by US actions in Venezuela, year-end tax-loss trading, and rising crypto legislation expectations. Speculation about Venezuela holding significant "shadow Bitcoin reserves" and using USDT in oil trades could make it a major sovereign BTC holder. Options data show a bullish shift, with increased call options and straddle strategies indicating short covering and bets on upward volatility.

QCP: Venezuela Situation and Options Funding Resonance Strengthen Bullish Expectations in the Crypto Market

Early signs of market recovery are emerging in recent years, with some indicators suggesting the trend is improving, but sufficient confirmation in volume and price has yet to appear. Therefore, it is prudent at this stage to focus on whether key support is solid, whether resistance converts into support effectively, and watch for continuous coordination between volume and volatility to avoid early rebounds becoming false breakouts.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

BTC Proxy

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