Benefiting from improved overseas risk appetite, NBS is expected to see short-term capital inflows, with prices likely to remain in a high-level consolidation, with the upper range referenced at $0.185-0.21. However, the Federal Reserve's policy path remains uncertain, and in the medium to long term, there are risks of liquidity tightening and valuation adjustments. Recommendation: In the short term, pay attention to structural rebound opportunities and gradually reduce positions at staged highs; in the medium to long term, adopt a defensive allocation, strengthen risk management, and avoid blindly chasing highs.

Recently, the U.S. S&P 500 Index has approached historical highs and continued to rise for several months, reflecting a significant increase in overall market risk appetite. Against the backdrop of increased demand from investors for high-yielding assets, cryptocurrencies have gained additional appeal as alternative investments. In the short term, this risk-on sentiment is likely to provide buying support for NBS, driving the price to a staged rebound after consolidation.

Although the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to maintain an accommodative stance through rate cuts, there is still considerable disagreement regarding the future path of monetary policy, especially since the appointment of a new Fed chair remains unresolved. This policy uncertainty could trigger volatility in the medium to long term, with the potential for risk asset valuations to experience phased corrections. Therefore, while prospective rate cuts are positive for crypto assets, investors should remain cautious about the medium to long-term value of NBS and avoid one-sided optimism.

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Global markets are fretting about growth due to the war in Iran. A slowdown is something stocks can handle. However, the risk that the global economy tips the wrong way is also increasing.

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