PUNCH currently faces a significant short-term liquidity shortage, with extremely muted trading activity, widening bid-ask spreads, and increased slippage risk. Short-term price action lacks major catalysts, so it is advised to avoid heavy short-term trading positions. However, medium- to long-term structural opportunities are gradually emerging. If PUNCH actively develops geopolitical derivative products or collaborates with leading political prediction markets, it is likely to attract institutional capital and drive improved liquidity. Strategically, it is recommended to focus on the price-volume relationship in cycles longer than 30 days, with a target range of 15–25% premium above the current price for reasonable expectations, while maintaining close tracking of potential market theme rotations.

According to the latest market data, short-term (within 1 day) crypto market liquidity is severely lacking, with most contracts showing virtually no transactions in 24 hours. PUNCH’s chart on Bybit similarly displays sharply reduced trading volumes and a narrower price range, indicating that both bulls and bears are adopting a wait-and-see stance in the short term. In this low-volume environment, PUNCH’s bid-ask spreads further widen and slippage risk intensifies. Market sentiment remains cautious in the short term, with no clear signals of bullish momentum.

Compared to the short term, the liquidity of long-term (over 30 days) derivatives markets is about 45 times higher and is being driven by geopolitical themes. Since the beginning of this year, macro-political hedging markets have seen the fastest growth, with capital concentrated on a few core narrative topics. If PUNCH can tap into these long-term hedging scenarios or collaborate with mainstream political prediction markets, it will likely attract more institutional allocation and create new liquidity influx. In the medium and long term, products with quality fundamentals are more likely to receive premium pricing and revaluation opportunities.

Punching Cat

Bank of Japan: High oil prices and a weak yen could keep core inflation at around 3% for two consecutive years

The Federal Reserve maintains the interest rate at 3.5%-3.75%, continuing its wait-and-see approach.

Morgan Stanley delays Fed rate cut expectations to next year, inflation pressures remain high.

The Powell era comes to an end: What has he left behind?

Reminder: Please pay special attention to the following (all times are in Beijing time).

US growth likely picked up in first quarter, but consumer spending probably cooled

Morgan Stanley: Expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged in 2026 and cut rates in 2027.

Bitcoin Slips to $75K as Federal Reserve Holds Rates, Dimming Warsh “Pivot Party” Hopes

SoSo Macro | Powell Remains Governor, Three Fed Voters Oppose Rate Cuts; Big Tech Cloud Revenue Growth Accelerates

CITIC Securities: The Market Guidance Role of the Federal Reserve Chairman's Speech Declines

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