Recently, ALCH has surged significantly in the short term, driven by easing geopolitical tensions and Bitcoin volatility. After retreating from its highs, the effectiveness of support in the 0.065–0.066 range becomes the key for the subsequent trend. If this zone holds, consider probing positions on dips, targeting a return to 0.088 and higher fluctuation peaks. If it is breached, positions should be quickly reduced, with caution towards a further pullback to the medium-term support at 0.0600. Pay close attention to volume changes and institutional movements; in the short to medium term, a range-bound strategy is recommended, focusing on operations at critical levels.

Recently, signs of easing in the Middle East, combined with a revival in risk assets under the Fed's hawkish expectations, have led Bitcoin to post a single-day gain of about 3%—significantly boosting overall market risk appetite. Against this backdrop, ALCH steadily climbed from around 0.0627 to approximately 0.0667 between April 9 and 14, accompanied by a surge in trading volume. This reflects growing bullish confidence and laid the foundation for the subsequent explosive rally.

Bitcoin surged past $72,000, rising about 3% to approximately $72,300, driven by easing tensions in the Middle East. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu reportedly initiated talks with Lebanon, supported by Trump's call for reduced Israeli military actions to maintain a ceasefire. Bitcoin's 24-hour gain of around 2% outpaced other major cryptocurrencies and coincided with a rebound in U.S. stocks and a drop in oil prices. Bitcoin is increasingly decoupling from tech stocks, influenced more by geopolitical and risk-averse factors.

Analysis: Bitcoin breaks through $72,000, Middle East ceasefire expectations boost market sentiment.

Bitcoin approached the critical breakout level near $75,000 after surpassing four-week highs, triggering an amplified negative gamma effect in the derivatives market and leading to notable short-term price swings. ALCH also experienced a surge in volume, reaching an intraday high of 0.1038, before retreating to 0.088 due to profit-taking at higher levels. This reflects intense tussle between bulls and bears within this range.

Bitcoin has surpassed a four-week high, rising above $74,000. Analysts identify $75,000 as a critical "volatility release point," where derivative market negative gamma effects may amplify price fluctuations. This level coincides with Bitcoin's 100-day moving average, a key resistance in January. Breaking $75,000 could accelerate an uptrend, while a pullback may increase downward pressure. The $80,000–$80,600 range is a positive gamma zone with lower volatility, and the 200-day moving average at $87,519 serves as a long-term reference.

Analysis: Bitcoin breaks four-week high, key price range may intensify market volatility

After a strong rally on the 15th, ALCH saw a pullback on the 16th to close at 0.0805, with trading volume dropping sharply and bullish momentum temporarily subsiding. Technically, the 0.065–0.066 area has served as a multiple stopping-point in recent months; if it holds, a new consolidation platform may be established there. If breached, further downside toward the medium-term support near 0.0600 should be cautioned. Continual institutional positioning and diverging sentiment in the derivatives market will also jointly influence the medium- to long-term trend.

Alchemist AI

It’s not a given that the European Central Bank’s next move on interest rates will be a hike, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks.

Kazaks: Will not oppose bets on two interest rate hikes this year

Waller: Rapid resolution of the Middle East situation may allow for interest rate cuts later this year.

Waller: Overall PCE inflation year-over-year in March may reach 3.5%

The Federal Reserve's Waller expressed caution regarding interest rates, warning of the risks of prolonged warfare.

Fed's Daly: Rates May Remain Unchanged

Daly: The federal funds rate is slightly above the neutral level of 3%.

UBS Expects 50 bps Fed Rate Cuts as Gov Miran Downplays Inflation Risks

Federal Reserve's Daly: On hold regarding interest rates.

Easing tensions in the Middle East combined with rising expectations of interest rate cuts have pushed gold close to $4,900.

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ALCH price today is 0.08, with a live price change of -2.62 in the last 24 hours. Convert, buy, sell and trade ALCH on Bybit-eu.

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