XRP is currently experiencing a divergence between institutional net inflows and ETF net redemptions. There is clear accumulation at low levels in the spot market, but short pressures from derivatives leverage persist. Technically, XRP is forming a short-term bottom near $1.30. If it can effectively recover $1.40 and break the $3.32 range, it will open up further upside potential; the medium-term target range is $1.68–2.21. Progress in regulatory compliance and healthy stablecoin liquidity provide bottom support for subsequent price movements. Strategy suggestion: Consider initiating a speculative long position in the $1.30–1.40 range, closely monitor ETF capital flows and regulatory developments, add to positions upon a breakout above $1.40, and set a stop-loss below $1.28.

Recently, there has been a clear divergence between the positions of large institutions and ETF capital flows. Although a certain investment bank has become a leading holder of spot XRP ETFs with total holdings exceeding $150 million, XRP’s price remains weak, and the market remains cautious about its short-term performance. In contrast, Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have recently seen net inflows totaling over $7 billion, while XRP-related ETFs have continually experienced capital outflows and more than $1 million in net redemptions on a single day. Overall, although XRP ETFs achieved slight net inflows in the first quarter, macro and technical pressures still signal short-term risk of profit-taking at local tops.

Goldman Sachs disclosed holding approximately $152 million in spot XRP ETF positions, becoming the largest institutional investor in this field. Despite this, XRP's recent performance remains weak. Goldman holds four XRP ETF products totaling about 73% of the top 30 institutional holdings. Market sentiment is cautious, with technical analysis indicating a bearish pattern suggesting a potential 50% price decline. Short-term risks persist amid macro pressures and weakening capital flows.

Analysis: Goldman Sachs' $152M XRP ETF holdings did not boost the price, but the coin remains under pressure and may drop by 50%.

Bitcoin ETFs saw a $69.44 million inflow, led by Ark & 21Shares’ ARKB and Fidelity’s FBTC, signaling a modest rebound after recent outflows. Ether ETFs ended an eight-day outflow streak with a $4.96 million inflow, driven by Fidelity’s FETH and Blackrock’s ETHB, despite continued outflows from ETHA. Meanwhile, Solana and $XRP ETFs faced further declines. The market shows early signs of selective investor confidence, favoring larger assets like bitcoin and ether.

Bitcoin ETFs Rebound With $69 Million Inflow as Ether Ends Losing Streak

US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $1.32 billion in inflows in March 2026, marking their first monthly gain of the year, but Q1 ended with roughly $500 million in net outflows due to larger redemptions in January and February. Despite a 22% Bitcoin price drop and persistent market fear, March inflows reflected resilience amid geopolitical tensions. Ether ETFs posted $46 million in March outflows and $769 million quarterly losses, while XRP and Solana ETFs ended Q1 with positive net flows.

Bitcoin ETFs posted $1.3B in inflows in March, marking the first monthly gain of 2026.

According to ChainCatcher and SoSoValue data, the US XRP spot ETF experienced a single-day net outflow of $1.3158 million. The historical total net outflow has reached -$25.1838 million. As of the report, the XRP spot ETF's total net asset value stands at $948 million, with an XRP net asset ratio of 1.14% and a cumulative historical net inflow of $1.208 billion.

Data: US XRP spot ETF single-day total net outflow of $1.3158 million

On-chain data reveals a clear struggle between the spot and derivatives markets. Cumulative spot-driven trading volume has rebounded from -$250 million to +$238 million, indicating aggressive accumulation by institutions and large holders at current lows. However, cumulative perpetual contract volumes continue to decline, suggesting sustained short positioning. Meanwhile, open interest in futures markets is rising, reflecting increased leverage, which could trigger stop-loss squeezes and heightened volatility in the near term. Such a divergence structure is likely to increase price swings in the short run, but could also catalyze sudden short squeezes.

Analyst Amr Taha highlights a significant divergence between XRP's spot and derivatives markets. Spot market data shows a strong increase in buying appetite, with CVD rising from -$250 million to +$238 million, indicating asset accumulation. Conversely, derivatives markets exhibit continued selling pressure, with CVD in perpetual futures dropping further. However, rising open interest suggests increasing leverage use. This divergence may support short-term upward price movements and potential short squeeze risks.

There Is a Significant Divergence in XRP’s Spot and Derivatives Market Data: What Does This Mean?

On the daily chart, XRP has retreated from the mid-March high of $1.55, breaking below the $1.40 and $1.35 support levels, and established a short-term bottom near $1.30. Trading volumes have declined relative to average levels, reflecting caution among bulls. On the larger timeframe, the structure still maintains an ascending triangle pattern that has persisted since 2017. If XRP can reclaim $1.40 and break above the $3.32 resistance, medium- to long-term upward potential will be unlocked. Algorithmic models predict that XRP could reach the $1.68 to $2.21 range in the coming months. Furthermore, Ripple’s advances in Singapore trade finance and regulatory deployments in Australia and Brazil provide fundamental support, favoring the continuation of the upward trend.

In 2026, XRP's price has been volatile, dropping nearly 25% early in the year but recovering modestly to around $1.40-$1.60 amid the Iran war's market impact. Unlike other cryptos showing strong gains, XRP remains range-bound and sensitive to conflict-related news. Algorithmic forecasts predict a rise to $1.68 by June and $2.21 by October. Ripple is advancing institutional projects, including stablecoin trade finance in Singapore and expanding regulatory presence in Australia and Brazil, supporting potential bullish momentum.

How XRP Price Is Navigating War Volatility in 2026

XRP is trading within a long-standing ascending triangle pattern since April 2017, currently at $1.36. A breakout above the $3.32 resistance could trigger a strong long-term uptrend, with targets of $27.17 and potentially $48.12. However, a drop below $0.90 would invalidate this pattern. Whale accumulation and institutional investments are adding bullish momentum, suggesting a promising buying opportunity for XRP's future price expansion.

XRP Presents Buying Opportunity for Strong Long-Term Uptrend

XRP lost over $30 billion in market capitalization in Q1 2026, dropping from $111.58 billion to $81.12 billion, with its price falling about 26% to $1.35. The decline was driven by its strong correlation with Bitcoin's drop, $2.2 billion in liquidations, fading ETF momentum, technical weaknesses, and macroeconomic pressures. However, technical analysis suggests a potential bullish breakout, with an ascending triangle pattern indicating possible upside targets if resistance is broken.

XRP wiped out over $30 billion in Q1 2026

XRP price may face a short-term decline of about 30% before a strong long-term recovery in 2026, according to analyst Ali Martinez. The monthly chart shows an ascending triangle pattern with resistance near $3.32 and support at a rising trendline. Recent bearish trends are driven by reduced capital inflows and declining speculative interest, including negative ETF inflows and a 73% drop in open interest. However, XRP's long-term outlook remains bullish due to strong fundamentals and institutional investments.

XRP price prediction: analyst maps 2026 outlook

As a new wave of U.S. crypto legislation enters its final stage, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP all fall under the scope of increased regulatory focus, and near-term compliance uncertainties may suppress market sentiment. On the other hand, stablecoin RLUSD’s redemption and issuance on the XRP ledger remain normal—a certain exchange’s $128 million net redemption in a single day has not triggered liquidity strain. The healthy operation of stablecoins provides an important liquidity buffer for the market; however, the pace of regulatory approval will be a key variable for future market volatility.

Gemini redeemed $128 million worth of Ripple’s $RLUSD stablecoin on the XRP Ledger by burning tokens in two transactions, reducing the XRPL $RLUSD supply to $189 million. This standard redemption process returns fiat liquidity to Gemini. Despite rumors about Gemini’s financial health, the company continues normal operations. Meanwhile, Ripple minted $10 million $RLUSD on Ethereum, where total supply exceeds $1 billion, with burns outpacing minting across both networks.

Gemini Just Burned $128M RLUSD on XRPL, as Supply Drops to $189M

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Institutions: The stronger-than-expected rebound in March non-farm payrolls demonstrates the resilience of the US labor market, with inflation currently being the core variable in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

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