MOG's short-term trend is doubly pressured by global macro tightening, subdued risk appetite, and slowing retail demand. Unless the resistance zone of 1.40–1.42×10⁻⁷ is effectively broken, prices are likely to continue downward. Caution is needed regarding the risk of weak rebounds caused by further shrinkage in trading volumes. In the medium to long term, clear regulations, ETF innovation, and increased institutional participation will be the main catalysts for upward movement. It is recommended to closely monitor changes in macro policy orientation and market trading structure, and pay attention to valuation recovery opportunities driven by liquidity improvements and regulation, especially during market dips.

Recently, the global macro environment has become more conservative. The Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates and delivers hawkish signals. In addition, sluggish inflation decline, rising energy prices, and geopolitical conflict risks have reignited worries about stagflation and postponed expectations for rate cuts, putting overall risk assets under pressure. MOG declined from its mid-March peak of 1.78×10⁻⁷ to around 1.31×10⁻⁷ as of April 4, breaking through multiple daily moving average supports. Trading volumes did not see sustained enlargement during the decline, indicating selling pressure persists. Although a short-term rebound to 1.38×10⁻⁷ occurred on April 4, if resistance at 1.40–1.42×10⁻⁷ is not effectively breached, the bearish trend is likely to be maintained.

In March, the macro environment was generally bearish with the Fed maintaining rates but signaling hawkishness amid sticky inflation, rising oil prices, and weakening employment, raising stagflation concerns and delaying rate cut expectations. The US stock market weakened due to tariff uncertainties and geopolitical risks, pressuring risk assets. Crypto markets saw pulse-like volume spikes but lacked sustained momentum; BTC and ETH spot ETFs shifted from outflows to inflows, reflecting cautious risk appetite recovery. Regulatory clarity improved as SEC and CFTC classified 16 major digital assets as commodities, easing institutional entry barriers. BlackRock launched an Ethereum staking ETF, marking a shift toward yield-generating crypto products. Security incidents highlighted growing risks in off-chain infrastructure and key management. April is critical for crypto regulation with the CLARITY Act's progress and Ethereum's major upgrade testing, alongside Fed leadership changes, all influencing market direction.

BitMart VIP Insights: March Crypto Market Review and Hotspot Analysis

Recently, regulatory authorities have become clearer in defining digital assets, with multiple mainstream assets recognized as commodities, lowering the participation threshold for institutions. Meanwhile, Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs have shifted from outflows to net inflows; notably, the first Ethereum staking ETF was launched, signaling rising institutional demand for yield-oriented crypto products. Although the short-term stance remains cautious, in the medium to long term, regulatory clarity and ETF innovation may provide ongoing liquidity support and upward valuation pressure for MOG and other mid- to small-market-cap tokens.

Research reports show the number of retail crypto investors in major Asia-Pacific markets continues to decline. Regulatory uncertainty, security and tax risks, usage barriers, and low social awareness are identified as five core obstacles. Overall, new user growth rate at the retail level has slowed, and market activity lacks significant improvement. For MOG, current trading volumes are far below the early impulse peaks; unless retail user participation substantially recovers, short- and medium-term demand gaps will continue to restrain price stabilization.

Tiger Research's report analyzes the decline of retail cryptocurrency investors despite rapid market growth, focusing on nine major Asian markets. It identifies five core barriers—regulatory uncertainty, security risks, tax burdens, usability challenges, and social perception—that hinder new user adoption. The report details diverse regulatory and market conditions across Northeast and Southeast Asia, examines exchange strategies for user acquisition, and highlights the need for localized education, transparency, and trust-building before the next crypto bull market.

Tiger Research: Analysis of the Current Status of Retail Investors in Nine Major Asian Markets

This research analyzes the entry barriers for retail investors in nine major Asian markets and examines the responses of exchanges to these challenges.

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