Driven by strengthened Asian liquidity and record-high derivatives trading volumes, SATOSHI is expected to see a liquidity-driven, short-term rebound. Investors should focus on trade signals where short-term long positions align with volume and volatility. Amid early-stage market recovery and improving sentiment, beware of FOMO-driven chasing risks; it is advised to set strict take-profit and stop-loss orders near key resistance levels (such as previous highs ±3%, subject to real-time market judgment). In the medium and long term, macro downtrend risks persist, large capital buying has peaked, and reduced whale holdings constrain upside potential. Therefore, consider accumulating positions gradually at lower levels, dynamically adjusting exposure, and closely tracking Bitcoin’s average entry cost and break-even points as potential selling pressure signals, ensuring strategy flexibility.

Recently, Asian markets have seen strengthened liquidity. With Bitcoin and Ethereum trading volumes reaching new highs, and a rapid build-up of long positions in OTC and options markets, overall crypto asset liquidity has significantly increased. CME Group reports that derivatives trading volumes continue to hit new records, with active call option buying reflecting expectations for further upside volatility. Against this backdrop, SATOSHI, a highly correlated token, is poised for a performance driven by capital inflows in the short term. Investors can look for trading opportunities where changes in volume align with volatility.

QCP's market analysis on January 5 highlights a strengthening crypto market in Asia, with Bitcoin and Ethereum surpassing $92,000 and $3,100 respectively, driven by US actions in Venezuela, year-end tax-loss trading, and rising crypto legislation expectations. Speculation about Venezuela holding significant "shadow Bitcoin reserves" and using USDT in oil trades could make it a major sovereign BTC holder. Options data show a bullish shift, with increased call options and straddle strategies indicating short covering and bets on upward volatility.

QCP: Venezuela Situation and Options Funding Resonance Strengthen Bullish Expectations in the Crypto Market

CME Group reported a 139% increase in average daily cryptocurrency trading volume in 2025, reaching a record 278,000 contracts with a notional value of $12 billion. Micro Ether futures and micro Bitcoin futures hit all-time high average annual volumes of 144,000 and 75,000 contracts respectively, while Ether futures set a daily record of 19,000 contracts. Q4 daily average volume reached 379,000 contracts ($13.3 billion), and December saw 339,000 contracts ($9.4 billion).

CME Group: Full-year daily cryptocurrency trading volume in 2025 increased by 139%, reaching a record 278K contracts.

Since the start of the year, Bitcoin has broken key psychological price levels, but overall market cap recovery is still in its early phase, with Altseason indicators yet to reach historical highs and market sentiment remaining cautious. While retail investor sentiment on social platforms is warming up, rapid price increases can spark excessive FOMO, and any reversal may accelerate profit-taking and chasing capital exit. For SATOSHI, short-term sentiment rebounds offer trading opportunities, but strict take-profit and stop-loss orders should be set near key resistance levels to avoid losses from sharp pullbacks after chasing highs.

At the start of the year, the crypto market saw a rare upward breakthrough with BTC surpassing $90,000 and major altcoins like ETH and SOL rising. Several altcoins, including PEPE and IP, surged over 20%. However, key indicators show the market is still in a "price repair" phase with overall market cap below previous highs, a low altseason index, and fear-dominated sentiment. While some view this as a buying opportunity amid improving liquidity and macroeconomic developments, caution remains advised.

Speculation sentiment rises again at the beginning of the year, is the altcoin season repeating?

Santiment analysts note that retail investor sentiment on social media has been strong at the start of the year, reflecting a positive mood after the holidays. However, they caution that the market's further rise depends on retail investors maintaining caution and not succumbing to excessive FOMO. A rapid Bitcoin surge to $92,000 could trigger significant FOMO, which historically signals potential market downturns following peaks.

Santiment: Retail sentiment started the year positively; if Bitcoin quickly rises to $92K, it could trigger FOMO.

Most short-term Bitcoin holders are currently underwater, which limits selling pressure during price pullbacks; however, once prices approach their average entry cost, profit-taking pressure will be rapidly released. Excluding exchange addresses, whale holdings are trending down, signaling that buying momentum from large players may have peaked. If Bitcoin price touches key break-even levels and concentrated profit-taking occurs, coupled with hidden selling pressure, this could trigger a more cautious market sentiment and drag down SATOSHI’s price performance due to its high correlation.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel notes that Bitcoin's current rise benefits from reduced selling pressure by short-term holders, who are currently at a loss since BTC trades below their average acquisition cost. This limits their profit-taking potential and suppresses sell pressure, explaining price resilience despite pullbacks. However, if BTC reaches $100,000, short-term holders may break even and start selling, creating price pressure. A key bullish signal is BTC closing above the short-term holders' realized price.

Analyst: The current BTC rise benefits from reduced selling pressure; if it reaches $100K, it will face selling from short-term holders.

CryptoQuant research head Julio Moreno stated that the market misinterprets whale behavior, as many large Bitcoin holders are consolidated within exchange addresses, leading to false assumptions of accumulation. Excluding exchange addresses shows whale balances are actually declining. He emphasized that true Bitcoin demand is slowing monthly and yearly, approaching negative territory, suggesting the need to update valuation models rather than relying solely on price cycles.

CryptoQuant Head of Research: Market Misjudges Whale Behavior, Bitcoin Real Demand Slows and Approaches Negative Territory

Although near-term liquidity and sentiment may drive temporary rebounds, macro cycle risks remain to the downside, as shown by overall trading volume and fee trends. From a medium and long-term perspective, investors should prudently assess market fundamentals and update valuation models as needed. In this environment, it is recommended that investors differentiate strategies by holding period: short-term traders may flexibly follow sentiment swings to buy on dips and set strict take-profit orders; long-term value holders can accumulate positions in batches, timing entry opportunities, and pay attention to macro data as well as derivatives market turning point signals.

Analyst Willy Woo tweeted that he expects a short-term rebound in January due to rising liquidity, signaling a bottoming bounce. However, based on trading volume and fees, he remains bearish on the long-term macro cycle, describing the market as bleak.

Willy Woo: There will be a short-term bottoming rebound in January.

SATOSHI•NAKAMOTO (Bitcoin)

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