VUSD is expected to benefit in the short term from improved market liquidity and a rebound in funding, presenting an opportunity for a technical rebound. The price is likely to break through the upper boundary of the current trading range (with a quantitative reference range increase of 2-3%). However, structural selling pressure remains in the medium to long term, with limited cumulative capital inflows, so the potential for a rebound is restricted. Investors are advised to participate in the short-term rebound with appropriate caution, closely monitoring the sustainability of liquidity and capital flows. Maintain a cautious stance in the medium to long term, strictly controlling position sizes and drawdown risks.

Recently, the market has exhibited clear internal competition, with the USDC/USDT premium turning from negative to positive, indicating that selling pressure has notably eased. This signal of improved liquidity may drive a technical rebound for VUSD in the short term. A warmer funding environment generally boosts buying sentiment, which could help VUSD break out from its current trading range. Special attention should be paid to the sustainability of capital inflows.

Despite a short-term recovery in liquidity, there has been no fundamental alleviation of medium- to long-term structural selling pressure, and cumulative inflows remain insufficient to support a new upward trend. Unless liquidity indicators deteriorate again, VUSD still faces the risk of a continued downward trend. Investors should exercise caution in position sizing and guard against drawdown risks, especially in the absence of clear fundamental support.

Vesper V-Dollar

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