PYUSD is currently oscillating within a narrow range between $0.9992 and $1.0010, reflecting both market wait-and-see sentiment and abundant liquidity. In the short term, with geopolitical tensions easing and the US dollar supported, safe-haven demand remains stable, net capital inflow is limited, and price volatility is controlled. It is recommended to focus on the breakout of the $0.9992 support and $1.0010 resistance levels. A breakout above $1.0010 with increased volume could allow a short-term expansion of $0.0020. In the mid-term, closely monitor liquidity competition among major stablecoins and US regulatory developments; maintain a strategy prioritizing high liquidity and fund security.

Recent easing of tensions in the Middle East and progress in US-Iran negotiations have led to a temporary uptick in risk appetite among investors, driving up crypto asset prices. At the same time, with the US dollar strengthening amid geopolitical uncertainties, demand for stablecoins as hedging tools has fluctuated in tandem with market volatility. Overall, the rebound in risk assets in the short term has somewhat curbed net inflow into stablecoins, but the robust dollar continues to provide safe-haven bids, keeping stablecoin prices orderly and fluctuating around $1.

Analyst Dilin Wu from Pepperstone states that the failure of US-Iran talks has entrenched uncertainty, causing a short-term strengthening of the US dollar alongside a slight decline in US Treasury yields. After the initial market reaction fades, Treasury yields may show complex movements, with short-term yields dipping due to risk aversion, while rising oil prices could push long-term yields higher by anchoring inflation expectations. Energy and defense sectors are expected to outperform, reflecting supply constraints and increased geopolitical risk premiums.

Analyst: Breakdown in US-Iran talks embeds uncertainty, US dollar to strengthen briefly

Next week’s macro outlook highlights ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East impacting energy and metals markets, with oil and gold prices pressured amid easing panic after a tentative US-Iran ceasefire. The US dollar fell below 100, and US stocks rebounded strongly. Key events include US March PPI data, Federal Reserve officials’ speeches, Eurozone industrial output and CPI, US jobless claims, and the start of the US Q1 earnings season featuring major banks and tech companies.

Next week's macro outlook: The situation in the Middle East has once again plunged into a black hole of uncertainty, and the US stock market is entering earnings season.

BitMart Research Weekly highlights easing US-Iran tensions and a hawkish shift in the Federal Reserve, driving a rebound in risk assets including crypto. US stocks, especially AI-related sectors, show strong recovery amid geopolitical risks. Inflation data signals potential upward pressure if oil prices stay high. Crypto markets follow US stocks with BTC and ETH leading, while altcoins remain volatile. Institutional inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and MicroStrategy’s increased BTC holdings indicate long-term confidence.

BitMart Research Institute Weekly Hotspot Analysis: US-Iran Easing Combined with Fed's Hawkish Shift, Crypto Market Follows Rebound to Form a Bottom

From the daily candlestick chart, the price has formed an evident oscillation range between $0.9992 and $1.0010, with volatility less than 0.2%. Trading volume has continued to decline since peaking in early April, reflecting strong indecision between bulls and bears. The $0.9992 level acts as multi-test support; if breached, there is a risk of further testing the key $1.0000 mark. The $1.0010 level serves as short-term resistance, with multiple failed breakouts. Should a breakout occur with volume, it could open up an expansion range of $0.0020.

Recently, other mainstream stablecoins have further optimized their liquidity management to ensure real-time 1:1 redemptions to the reference currency, intensifying market attention on stablecoin ecosystem liquidity. At the same time, US market demand for digital assets is rebounding, particularly with continued increases in stablecoin balances on major exchanges. Overall, abundant liquidity and market preferences pull each other in turn, keeping prices tightly pegged to the US dollar with no obvious premium or discount. Under this competitive landscape, all types of stablecoins have shown strong redemption guarantees.

According to on-chain analyst Yu Jin, the Tron-based decentralized stablecoin USDD withdrew 109 million USDT from the lending platform Spark one hour ago and then replenished USDD's PSM pool. Currently, USDD has $42 million available liquidity for USDT redemption, ensuring sufficient redeemable quota.

USDD withdrew 109 million USDT from Spark, then added it to the USDD PSM pool.

According to Coinglass data on April 16, Coinbase's Bitcoin premium index has been positive for 8 consecutive days, currently at 0.0401%, indicating a continued recovery in US market buying sentiment after 15 days of negative premium. The index measures the price difference of Bitcoin on Coinbase compared to the global average, reflecting US market capital flow, institutional interest, and market sentiment. Positive premium suggests strong US buying, active institutional participation, ample dollar liquidity, and optimistic investor sentiment.

Buying sentiment in the US market continues to improve, with the Coinbase Bitcoin premium index remaining positive for 8 consecutive days.

PayPal USD

It’s not a given that the European Central Bank’s next move on interest rates will be a hike, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks.

Kazaks: Will not oppose bets on two interest rate hikes this year

Waller: Rapid resolution of the Middle East situation may allow for interest rate cuts later this year.

Waller: Overall PCE inflation year-over-year in March may reach 3.5%

The Federal Reserve's Waller expressed caution regarding interest rates, warning of the risks of prolonged warfare.

Fed's Daly: Rates May Remain Unchanged

Trump: US-Iran talks progress as Iran suspends nuclear program

Trump warns of bombing if no Iran deal by April 21 ceasefire expiration

Daly: The federal funds rate is slightly above the neutral level of 3%.

UBS Expects 50 bps Fed Rate Cuts as Gov Miran Downplays Inflation Risks

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